Dod101 wrote:
No point in saying 'Simple' It is not, but by golly you need to learn from your mistakes.
Dod
Indeed. And that's what I enjoy TLF and listening to others. TY.
Thanks to Anonymous,bruncher,niord,gvonge,Shelford, for Donating to support the site
Dod101 wrote:
No point in saying 'Simple' It is not, but by golly you need to learn from your mistakes.
Dod
BullDog wrote:Both The Telegraph and The Times rate SMT as a buy this morning.
UncleEbenezer wrote:BullDog wrote:Both The Telegraph and The Times rate SMT as a buy this morning.
OhBugger.
Though they can't be wrong every time, can they?
BullDog wrote:Well, on a drifting down a bit day for the FTSE, SMT manages a near 5% rally today. Perhaps it's not all 100% doom and gloom at Scottish Mortgage
Dod101 wrote:BullDog wrote:Well, on a drifting down a bit day for the FTSE, SMT manages a near 5% rally today. Perhaps it's not all 100% doom and gloom at Scottish Mortgage
Of course it is not all doom and gloom but the current drift could go on for some time yet. I do not even bother to look at the day to day movements; it is the broad moves we need to know about and I think for the moment it is in a 'pause' phase and could easily drift lower.
Dod
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Dod101 wrote:BullDog wrote:Well, on a drifting down a bit day for the FTSE, SMT manages a near 5% rally today. Perhaps it's not all 100% doom and gloom at Scottish Mortgage
Of course it is not all doom and gloom but the current drift could go on for some time yet. I do not even bother to look at the day to day movements; it is the broad moves we need to know about and I think for the moment it is in a 'pause' phase and could easily drift lower.
Dod
Hi Dod,
I hope you're well. My daughter and I are interested in SM as a long term buy and hold for her JISA. I'm struggling to tell her what I think the stock is worth. My best guess based on the "chart" tells me the stock is trying to test a price below £6 (but that's just a pure guess by a rank amateur) I can analyse an individual stock reasonably well and I can help her with that. But other than saying the stock has a discount to NAV (which I hasten to add I suspect is pointless as if the stock is always running at a discount it will sell at a discount too).
Can you or anyone reading point us in the right direction please. I hasten to add we are currently thinking of investing about 10% of her JISA in SM, but until we understand more about it we're keeping our powder dry.
Thanks in advance
Take care and I hope you've some lovely plans for the weekend
AiY(D)
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Dod101 wrote:BullDog wrote:Well, on a drifting down a bit day for the FTSE, SMT manages a near 5% rally today. Perhaps it's not all 100% doom and gloom at Scottish Mortgage
Of course it is not all doom and gloom but the current drift could go on for some time yet. I do not even bother to look at the day to day movements; it is the broad moves we need to know about and I think for the moment it is in a 'pause' phase and could easily drift lower.
Dod
Hi Dod,
I hope you're well. My daughter and I are interested in SM as a long term buy and hold for her JISA. I'm struggling to tell her what I think the stock is worth. My best guess based on the "chart" tells me the stock is trying to test a price below £6 (but that's just a pure guess by a rank amateur) I can analyse an individual stock reasonably well and I can help her with that. But other than saying the stock has a discount to NAV (which I hasten to add I suspect is pointless as if the stock is always running at a discount it will sell at a discount too).
Can you or anyone reading point us in the right direction please. I hasten to add we are currently thinking of investing about 10% of her JISA in SM, but until we understand more about it we're keeping our powder dry.
Thanks in advance
Take care and I hope you've some lovely plans for the weekend
AiY(D)
monabri wrote:Simply Wall Street calculates a "fair price" for SMT based on estimated cash flows. They refer to their calculation method as an " excess returns model".
https://github.com/SimplyWallSt/Company ... calculated
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/diversi ... ust-shares
( you might need to sign up (free) to view. They don't pester and are a reputable company).
I suspect that by the time I've understood the model and established If it is credible then the World will have moved on !
The fair price being somewhat higher than the current price at £16.03 per share.
I'd treat the valuation method as one snippet of information in making a decision.
scrumpyjack wrote:AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Dod101 wrote:BullDog wrote:Well, on a drifting down a bit day for the FTSE, SMT manages a near 5% rally today. Perhaps it's not all 100% doom and gloom at Scottish Mortgage
Of course it is not all doom and gloom but the current drift could go on for some time yet. I do not even bother to look at the day to day movements; it is the broad moves we need to know about and I think for the moment it is in a 'pause' phase and could easily drift lower.
Dod
Hi Dod,
I hope you're well. My daughter and I are interested in SM as a long term buy and hold for her JISA. I'm struggling to tell her what I think the stock is worth. My best guess based on the "chart" tells me the stock is trying to test a price below £6 (but that's just a pure guess by a rank amateur) I can analyse an individual stock reasonably well and I can help her with that. But other than saying the stock has a discount to NAV (which I hasten to add I suspect is pointless as if the stock is always running at a discount it will sell at a discount too).
Can you or anyone reading point us in the right direction please. I hasten to add we are currently thinking of investing about 10% of her JISA in SM, but until we understand more about it we're keeping our powder dry.
Thanks in advance
Take care and I hope you've some lovely plans for the weekend
AiY(D)
One needs to look at SMT in the context of its net asset value as against its shareprice and whether you have confidence in the manager's ability long term to make successful investments. At present they are on a high discount to NAV 766p vs 862.59p. Usually the price has been at a small premium to NAV.
Another factor is the value of their unquoted investments. They have a regular rotational review of the value of these so it is possible one reason for the current level of discount is that the market thinks NAV overstates the value of them.
Generally they have a history of making good calls, but they admit they got too heavily into China and underestimated the risks.
In spite of nearly halving they have done me very well and I will stay put (now a 5 bagger, was a 10 bagger).
So long term I think they will do well but everyone needs to make their own judgement and not blame anyone else if it does not work out!
Dod101 wrote:I am sorry to say that I cannot really help you. My current holding is still over 4% of my total portfolio but it is all 'free' so that makes a difference. It could certainly drop below £6 but who knows? It is very volatile. It has long been overtaken by Alliance Trust in my portfolio which is doing fine for me. I would probably, if starting from scratch, allocate funds 50/50 between the two but everyone has their own ideas. I would think 10% is too much for any one share, particularly Scottish Mortgage. One day it will take off again and then you will be holding too much of it!
I hope others contribute to give their opinions because there is no 'correct' answer to your query.
Dod
AsleepInYorkshire wrote:Dod101 wrote:I am sorry to say that I cannot really help you. My current holding is still over 4% of my total portfolio but it is all 'free' so that makes a difference. It could certainly drop below £6 but who knows? It is very volatile. It has long been overtaken by Alliance Trust in my portfolio which is doing fine for me. I would probably, if starting from scratch, allocate funds 50/50 between the two but everyone has their own ideas. I would think 10% is too much for any one share, particularly Scottish Mortgage. One day it will take off again and then you will be holding too much of it!
I hope others contribute to give their opinions because there is no 'correct' answer to your query.
Dod
Hi Dod,
Thank you for your reply. All taken in and duly added to our list of considerations. My daughter has 9K to invest in her JISA. We were going to look over this sooner, but I've not been able to look with her until now. Firstly the amount "we" are considering investing in SM is £1000 or roughly 10% of her JISA this year. What I want to do, if for no other reason than to explain "pound cost averaging" to her is trickle that money in each month at £100.00 per month. I know the trade costs will be more but if I've understood them correctly I think it's buttons compared to tackling the risk of a falling stock or bear market. Also I think your advice regarding 10% is completely correct. I should have explained myself a little better. We are going to select 9 stocks or funds at £1,000 each. Mum and Dad are paying her trading costs. But also for the next 3 years until she is 18 we are putting £9K per annum into her JISA. Whilst we don't propose to select 36 stocks we just felt we needed to start somewhere. So hopefully over our four year plan (of which we're 15 months into) the SM investment will represent 2.8%, assuming, off course it is all invested today. Hopefully, you can find the logic in that I think overall we will have 15-20 stocks or funds in her JISA.
I'm also very interested in your comment that I interpret that you will monitor a stock and if you feel its hit some of your filters or benchmarks you top skim? I want to explain this my daughter as I see a reasonable argument for risk reduction with this kind of approach.
I've gone a little off topic and I hope this boards moderator allows my breach please but SM is on "our" watch list and I wanted my reply to Dod to respond to all the points he has kindly raised.
I propose to pick this up on the correct board where I've raised the issue of my daughters JISA before now.
Thank you all for your patience and thank you Dod for replying
AiY(D)
Adamski wrote:@DavidM13, bounceback is possible but could get decade of value outperforming growth? Arguable that bubble has burst with growth stocks - hyped up tech stocks crashing, has happened many times before - dotcom, 2008, now lockdown winners - and if we are now in era of permanently higher inflation and interest rates, growth could underperform value for a long time.
DavidM13 wrote:Adamski wrote:@DavidM13, bounceback is possible but could get decade of value outperforming growth? Arguable that bubble has burst with growth stocks - hyped up tech stocks crashing, has happened many times before - dotcom, 2008, now lockdown winners - and if we are now in era of permanently higher inflation and interest rates, growth could underperform value for a long time.
YIKES!! Ok, maybe I will hold off buying any more of that stock then. Its only my SIPP so 20 years away to make good....
Dod101 wrote:Closed last night at under £7......... Dod
Nocton wrote:Dod101 wrote:Closed last night at under £7......... Dod
Perhaps we have all got too greedy and thinking too hard about SMT. For my grandchildren, investing regularly over 10 years, I have no complaints.
In March 2020 I was quite pleased to top-slice and sell some of my holding at £5.70, making a 3X gain on the price bought over the previous few years. I never dreamt the price could go to ~£15 within the next 18 months.
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