simoan wrote:Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies.
Great companies don't always make great investments. It depends on the price you pay.
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simoan wrote:Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies.
BT63 wrote:simoan wrote:Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies.
Great companies don't always make great investments. It depends on the price you pay.
simoan wrote:....Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies....
BT63 wrote:simoan wrote:....Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies....
Further to this, you mock me regarding crystal balls, but do you have a crystal ball that tells you which companies will have the best profits growth in the future? Even better, a crystal ball that shows you which companies' shares will give the highest return?
Or are you just extrapolating the past?
You're making a guesstimate today on where the profits of particular companies will be in the future. In addition to possible margins of error in your guesstimates, there's the risk that you're overpaying if you buy at today's price.
bluedonkey wrote:I think I don't know the future and simultaneously think that BT63 is right.
dealtn wrote:bluedonkey wrote:I think I don't know the future and simultaneously think that BT63 is right.
I know I don't know the future and simultaneously think BT63 (and you) is wrong.
BT63 wrote:dealtn wrote:bluedonkey wrote:I think I don't know the future and simultaneously think that BT63 is right.
I know I don't know the future and simultaneously think BT63 (and you) is wrong.
So what's the right answer?
dealtn wrote:What's the question?
BT63 wrote:dealtn wrote:What's the question?
The original question was:
Are US equities overvalued?
Some people say 'no' because things are different this time.
I think the answer is a strong 'yes' because of how far the US is from its own valuation mean, and how far relative to the valuations of other major indices.
A 10% valuation premium for the US over the rest of the world is normal. Now it's +35% which is +3s.d.
Then it drifted onto something like:
What should an investor do?
Some people say 'nothing'.
I say: 'rebalance'.
So I'm going to suggest that US equities look well placed to soon begin one of their worst periods of underperformance in living memory.
Are US equities overvalued?
What should an investor do?
BT63 wrote:simoan wrote:....Sorry but I don't invest in markets, I invest in companies....
Further to this, you mock me regarding crystal balls, but do you have a crystal ball that tells you which companies will have the best profits growth in the future? Even better, a crystal ball that shows you which companies' shares will give the highest return?
Or are you just extrapolating the past?
You're making a guesstimate today on where the profits of particular companies will be in the future. In addition to possible margins of error in your guesstimates, there's the risk that you're overpaying if you buy at today's price.
Charlottesquare wrote: Personally I am prepared to reduce upside potential by using ITs to spread the risks to a degree, others, maybe at a different point in their life, might take a different view (I have become more cautious with age as fewer years to remedy/ catch back any mistakes I now make)
AWOL wrote:We are now down to the same CAPE level as we were at the market peak in 1929 when Black Tuesday ended the party. CAPE didn't get back to that level until the late 90s TMT/Dot Com rally. I guess we are not out of the woods yet
JohnW wrote:Overvalued? We know the price; to know if that’s good value the past returns or characteristics of the stocks would be irrelevant now. What’s relevant to ‘good value’ is what returns you get in the future. Not knowing that means we can’t know if they’re overvalued, surely?
The question seems unanswerable except with opinion, and I’m loath to act on someone else’s. But as a discussion topic, bountiful.
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