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Lonmin and Platinum

JMN2
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Lonmin and Platinum

#64757

Postby JMN2 » July 4th, 2017, 5:44 pm

Interesting bit starts around 4:30

https://youtu.be/EGRsy9UTeM4

CommissarJones
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#65043

Postby CommissarJones » July 5th, 2017, 11:49 pm

Ta for putting that up. By coincidence, the following article just popped up on Seeking Alpha:

"Is It Time to Buy Platinum?"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408592 ... y-platinum

And FWIW, here's a quarterly presentation from the World Platinum Investment Council dated May 15.

https://www.platinuminvestment.com/file ... 202017.pdf

The interesting supply/demand stuff starts on page 14.

FredBloggs
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#65048

Postby FredBloggs » July 6th, 2017, 1:43 am

TBH, I have been wondering about value of platinum for some time. It seems cheap to me, compared to gold. The downside, I think, is the rapidity with which the automobile industry is hurtling towards electrification. 10 to 15 years time, the cars parked in your street could be electric just as likely as infernal combustion engine powered. But............. electric propulsion does not require catalytic converters. I have no knowledge of what proportion of platinum goes into car catalysts, but I bet it is a significant proportion. Johnson Matthey PLC may have a view on this?

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#65140

Postby CommissarJones » July 6th, 2017, 2:01 pm

FredBloggs wrote:The downside, I think, is the rapidity with which the automobile industry is hurtling towards electrification. 10 to 15 years time, the cars parked in your street could be electric just as likely as infernal combustion engine powered. But............. electric propulsion does not require catalytic converters.


Apparently platinum is also used in fuel cells, so the move toward electric vehicles might turn out to be positive for the metal. From the demand drivers section of the World Platinum Investment Council's website:

World Platinum Investment Council wrote:Platinum’s superior catalytic and conductive properties in fuel cells turn hydrogen and air into water producing electricity to power electric cars with zero emissions ... Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) use more than twice the amount of platinum in internal combustion engine vehicles.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#65192

Postby FredBloggs » July 6th, 2017, 5:10 pm

But electric cars don't have fuel cells. They have batteries. Fuel cell technology is something else altogether. Using hydrogen to generate electricity in the vehicle.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#67951

Postby CommissarJones » July 17th, 2017, 5:40 pm

The old dog is showing some life - Lonmin rose 14% today.

I have been seriously considering buying into this one, but have yet to pull the trigger. Assuming this is a blip rather than the start of a prolonged breakout, I will probably wait for the technical indicators to (hopefully) return to bargain-basement territory and then assess the prospects.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#67991

Postby JMN2 » July 17th, 2017, 8:57 pm

The chap in the video has 3 rough outcomes. 1. goes bankrupt 2. is taken over around 4-5x inside 2 years 3. 20x 30x 40x

Just eyeballing some pessimistic probablities makes this to me a small lottery ticket to be stashed away.

JMN2
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#68272

Postby JMN2 » July 19th, 2017, 8:24 am

CommissarJones wrote:The old dog is showing some life - Lonmin rose 14% today.

I have been seriously considering buying into this one, but have yet to pull the trigger. Assuming this is a blip rather than the start of a prolonged breakout, I will probably wait for the technical indicators to (hopefully) return to bargain-basement territory and then assess the prospects.


A nice blip, I am up 32%.

JMN2
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#68419

Postby JMN2 » July 19th, 2017, 5:08 pm

I should really stop looking into this but am up 42 per cent. What a blip! :D

Itsallaguess
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#68425

Postby Itsallaguess » July 19th, 2017, 5:17 pm

JMN2 wrote:
I should really stop looking into this but am up 42 per cent.

What a blip!


If I've learnt one single investment-lesson personally, it's that when I start wanting to tell people how well one of my stocks is doing, historically it has proven to have been almost the exact point where I should also have started to sell at least some of my holding in that particular stock....

Well done though! :O)

Itsallaguess

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#78271

Postby CommissarJones » August 31st, 2017, 8:22 pm

Here's a recent note from ETF Securities on platinum and palladium, for anyone who might be interested.

JMN2
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#86371

Postby JMN2 » October 6th, 2017, 7:18 pm

LMI was looking a bit soft but is awake today...up 15.2%. It's a lottery ticket, most I can lose is about my annual council tax bill (but I could cover that from my bitcoin profits!). :lol:

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#86380

Postby CommissarJones » October 6th, 2017, 9:06 pm

JMN2 wrote:LMI was looking a bit soft but is awake today...up 15.2%.


Something to do with this, I suspect.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/lonmin-pl ... 00038780S/

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#89047

Postby JMN2 » October 18th, 2017, 9:46 am

I bought a similar tiny amount for my SIPP too because it seems that there is a floor to the fluctuations, and should that floor break then it won't do much damage.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#100072

Postby CommissarJones » November 29th, 2017, 10:35 pm

Lonmin is now back down to 62.25 pence, below the lowest close in June (63p), for anyone who is feeling lucky. In the interim, the stock closed as high as 106p (1 November).

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#100323

Postby JMN2 » November 30th, 2017, 7:57 pm

CommissarJones wrote:Lonmin is now back down to 62.25 pence, below the lowest close in June (63p), for anyone who is feeling lucky. In the interim, the stock closed as high as 106p (1 November).


Apparently some strike problems in SA.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#104063

Postby CommissarJones » December 14th, 2017, 9:55 am

Agreed takeover bid for Lonmin from mining company Sibanye-Stillwater, which originated with a spinoff from Gold Fields Ltd. in 2013.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/lonmin-pl ... 00063332Z/

Sibanye-Stillwater website:

https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/

GoSeigen
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#104120

Postby GoSeigen » December 14th, 2017, 1:17 pm

CommissarJones wrote:Agreed takeover bid for Lonmin from mining company Sibanye-Stillwater, which originated with a spinoff from Gold Fields Ltd. in 2013.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/lonmin-pl ... 00063332Z/

Sibanye-Stillwater website:

https://www.sibanyestillwater.com/


Hmm, wouldn't be too happy with a takeover at the proposed price, especially if the new shares were inelligible for my ISAs. Hope some bigger shareholders push for a better deal.


GS

JMN2
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#104325

Postby JMN2 » December 15th, 2017, 11:05 am

Disappointing indeed. I am currently flattish across my ISA and SIPP. Looks like they just wanted to give up and are fed up with it. Not even a cash offer.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#104573

Postby CommissarJones » December 16th, 2017, 4:34 pm

Nice Bloomberg story here from last month that IMV does an effective job of shedding some light on why Lonmin might indeed have been anxious to sell out when the opportunity presented itself.

Bloomberg wrote:Every day, Lonmin Plc sends thousands of miners hundreds of meters below ground, where they use drills, diggers and explosives to extract about 40,000 metric tons of rock laden with precious metals.

The ore is milled, crushed, concentrated, smelted and refined in a month-long process that eventually yields about 4,100 ounces of platinum-group metals each day. Yet for all its trouble, Lonmin’s revenue in the most recent quarter was barely $3 an ounce higher than its costs.

(My bolding.)


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