fca2019 wrote:I modelled some forecast figures in excel and things do look bad in the uk. John H's point is interesting that 20% think they have had it.
Can you summarise how you have forecasted?
It's clear from today's briefing that London has been first and fastest to see the effects of the virus, so I wouldn't be surprised if the %infected is much higher in London & South-East than elsewhere in the country.
I've just thought of a way to estimate the proportion who have had the virus - what do you think of the following logic?
European stats show 30% of people getting the virus need hospitalisation.
Let's assume everyone hospitalised in the UK is getting the test, that's 42,000.
Add on 20% for people in care homes not hospitalised - another 8,400 gives 51,400 which is 30% of all cases with symptoms.
That gives 170,000 with symptoms.
Virus takes 5 days to show symptoms, another 7 days to develop to serious 2nd stage.
So the 170,000 were infected 12 days ago.
Virus spread doubles every 3 days, so multiply 170,000 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 1,360,000 who have the virus as of today - and will get mild or severe symptoms.
Of course the big unknown is % of people who've had it with no symptoms.
Let's assume that's 50% of all cases (I've seen that figure somewhere!), so 1,360,000 / 50% = 2.72 million people in the UK.
Comments and critiques welcome.
Edited 1 time because I thought of a possible way of estimating total numbers who've had the virus.