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More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

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Ashfordian
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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166348

Postby Ashfordian » September 14th, 2018, 3:00 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Ashfordian wrote:No I am quibbling over what was actually forecast.

The BBC's economics editor, in the analysis section of the article, rubbishes that the forecast was ever made, and says that is was an apocalyptic test where the Bank [of England] deliberately sets the parameters beyond what might reasonably be expected to occur

In the article, the BBC report on "worst case" etc. Nowhere does it state that this 1/3 (or 35%) was a forecast.
In your earlier post you stated
I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney
(my bold)

So you've stated they are making a forecast (despite there being no forecast to this effect in the artcle, as well as three references* in the article to the fact that this was NOT a forecast, then complained the BBC are making up fake news?

Were you referring to a different article, as your claim makes no sense to me (and I really would like to see both sides of this argument)?
( as before: I#m referring to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45516678 )

*Statements in the article referring to "forecast"
#1: It appears that the Governor wasn't providing the Cabinet with a forecast
#2: It was not a forecast
#3: a doomsday scenario that is not actually forecast to happen


It's quite simple. What does the headline of the article say?

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166364

Postby vrdiver » September 14th, 2018, 3:42 pm

Ashfordian wrote:It's quite simple. What does the headline of the article say?

The headline is
Carney warns no-deal could see house prices plunge


Note the lack of the word "forecast". Also note the use of "could", not "would". As you read the article to find out more (as the headline is designed to make you want to do) you are told, quite clearly, that this is not a forecast.

Your statement: "I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney." (again, my bold) misquotes the article and the headline.

So I repeat: you've stated they are making a forecast (despite there being no forecast to this effect in the artcle, as well as three references in the article to the fact that this was NOT a forecast, then complained the BBC are making up fake news?

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166405

Postby JamesMuenchen » September 14th, 2018, 5:45 pm

Following the 2008 GFC, UK house prices fell 16%. So a fall of 30%+ would really be going some.

Mind you, Carney predicted interest rates would rise if the UK voted for Brexit, then cut them when the UK voted for Brexit.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166417

Postby Ashfordian » September 14th, 2018, 6:33 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Ashfordian wrote:It's quite simple. What does the headline of the article say?

The headline is
Carney warns no-deal could see house prices plunge


Note the lack of the word "forecast". Also note the use of "could", not "would". As you read the article to find out more (as the headline is designed to make you want to do) you are told, quite clearly, that this is not a forecast.

Your statement: "I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney." (again, my bold) misquotes the article and the headline.

So I repeat: you've stated they are making a forecast (despite there being no forecast to this effect in the artcle, as well as three references in the article to the fact that this was NOT a forecast, then complained the BBC are making up fake news?


So in your world "Carney warns no-deal could see house prices plunge" is not a forecast?

That headline certainly presents it as a forecast to me and was the headline that was run this morning in many news outlets thus is more Project Fear via propaganda.

Then you read the article and the headline bares no resemblance to the headline because the 'slump' in house prices was actually BoE stress test on UK Banks. Carney never said to the Cabinet that house prices would slump or fall by 35%.

All this in spite of the BBC's pledge on this page - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/help-41670342

Our website, like our TV and radio services, strives for journalism that is accurate, impartial, independent and fair.

This article and the way the BBC presented it makes the above pledge laughable. This story was propaganda and thus fake news. The BBC reached a new low today!

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166423

Postby Nimrod103 » September 14th, 2018, 6:46 pm

vrdiver wrote:
Ashfordian wrote:It's quite simple. What does the headline of the article say?

The headline is
Carney warns no-deal could see house prices plunge


Note the lack of the word "forecast". Also note the use of "could", not "would". As you read the article to find out more (as the headline is designed to make you want to do) you are told, quite clearly, that this is not a forecast.

Your statement: "I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney." (again, my bold) misquotes the article and the headline.

So I repeat: you've stated they are making a forecast (despite there being no forecast to this effect in the artcle, as well as three references in the article to the fact that this was NOT a forecast, then complained the BBC are making up fake news?


Sorry. When people use the words 'could happen' they are making a forecast, to which a probability needs to added. Most normal people, when they make forecasts, concentrate on their most likely scenario and outcome. Apparently not the Guvner of the BoE, who can make the most extreme forecasts, and pretend they are quite likely outcomes.
For being so devious and misleading, Carney should be sacked. He is partisan and incompetent.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166434

Postby DiamondEcho » September 14th, 2018, 7:22 pm

Ashfordian wrote:The FT really should be doing some proper journalistic investigations into these stories rather than simply being a mouthpiece for Project Fear


If you think about who reads the FT, bankers, politicians, diplomats, etc they're just pitching to their audience. Each of the latter will see their imagined life-time profit potential shrink as a result of Brexit. Boo-hoo, the majority will no longer be paying for it.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166446

Postby Sorcery » September 14th, 2018, 8:14 pm

DiamondEcho wrote:
Ashfordian wrote:The FT really should be doing some proper journalistic investigations into these stories rather than simply being a mouthpiece for Project Fear


If you think about who reads the FT, bankers, politicians, diplomats, etc they're just pitching to their audience. Each of the latter will see their imagined life-time profit potential shrink as a result of Brexit. Boo-hoo, the majority will no longer be paying for it.


The FT hasn't always been bad, it used to be reasonably priced & free of political slant.
I can't remember exactly when but possibly it was at the time Tony Blair was in office, it kind of morphed into a London centric, europhile, used toilet paper kind of rag (but well written of course). Used to buy the Saturday edition once a week for years, even paid for a copy to be in reception daily in my office, as then. Back then though the Independent was broadly independent :-) and the Morning Star (a communist rag) was quite successful with it's share information/tips etc. Think this might be the online version http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166456

Postby Sundance13 » September 14th, 2018, 8:44 pm

Ashfordian wrote:I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney.

The BBC still have this as headline news despite their own economics editor rubbishing the story

The FT really should be doing some proper journalistic investigations into these stories rather than simply being a mouthpiece for Project Fear



By ‘fake’ news you mean news that suggests something negative about Brexit?

Looks like a load of fuss about nothing to me. Carney highlights an obvious risk to property prices and the economy in the event of ‘no deal’, pulls a figure on house prices from thin air and Brexiteers as usual get very excited and shout ‘Project Fear’ very loudly. Encouraged as usual by the usual toxic addition of lousy press coverage and twisting of words to grab a few extra headlines.

Nothing changes!

In the event of no deal will the economy suffer? Yes of course it will. Will house prices fall 30%? No idea, nor does Carney really, it’s far too difficult to model given all the variables involved. All I can say with 99% confidence is it won’t be positive for the economy, it’s just the ‘how bad’ part that’s difficult to forecast.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166468

Postby Nimrod103 » September 14th, 2018, 9:42 pm

Carney has been anything but clear.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... binet-met/

But his choice of words, even here, is open to interpretation. Is he saying that the house price crash is unlikely or that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely?
And were the politicians at the Cabinet meeting similarly confused by what Carney had said? Did the governor scare them when what he was trying to do was reassure them? Or was he deliberately vague in the hope that the totemic issue of house prices would help pull the politicians together to seek a deal with Brussels?


Central bankers should not speak deviously nor in riddles. He should go.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166470

Postby IanTHughes » September 14th, 2018, 9:58 pm

Sundance13 wrote:In the event of no deal will the economy suffer? Yes of course it will. Will house prices fall 30%? No idea, nor does Carney really, it’s far too difficult to model given all the variables involved.


Sundance13 wrote:All I can say with 99% confidence is it won’t be positive for the economy, it’s just the ‘how bad’ part that’s difficult to forecast.

Even with all those variables?


Ian

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166475

Postby Sundance13 » September 14th, 2018, 10:25 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:In the event of no deal will the economy suffer? Yes of course it will. Will house prices fall 30%? No idea, nor does Carney really, it’s far too difficult to model given all the variables involved.


Sundance13 wrote:All I can say with 99% confidence is it won’t be positive for the economy, it’s just the ‘how bad’ part that’s difficult to forecast.

Even with all those variables?


Ian



Yep, the variables only affect the level of shock to the economy, the fact there will be a shock in the event of no deal is inevitable. Examples being how effective the Govt is at mitigating some of the effects, how prepared business is, what the EU choose to do etc.

For me it’s like watching a sprinter run two 100m races, one on a proper track, the other up a muddy hill with obstacles in the way. You know he’ll be quicker on the proper track, but it’s a lot more difficult to predict exactly how much quicker he’ll be.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166489

Postby DiamondEcho » September 15th, 2018, 12:12 am

Sorcery wrote:[and the Morning Star (a communist rag) was quite successful with it's share information/tips etc. Think this might be the online version http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx



Morningstar is a very highly respected apoliticial source of financial news. Zero shouty 'read this' headlines, zero ads.

Think about it, a 'communist rag' isn't going to be giving you share tips, is it?

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166522

Postby Sorcery » September 15th, 2018, 9:40 am

DiamondEcho wrote:Sorcery wrote:
[and the Morning Star (a communist rag) was quite successful with it's share information/tips etc. Think this might be the online version http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx



Morningstar is a very highly respected apoliticial source of financial news. Zero shouty 'read this' headlines, zero ads.

Think about it, a 'communist rag' isn't going to be giving you share tips, is it?


The communist rag is still around without the share section : https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/
It was in the 1970s that I became aware of the paradox (communism + shares) in the same newspaper. That's what made it interesting. I have no idea what has happened in between. The link http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx looks like it's USA based and may or may not share more than the name.

SteMiS
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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166527

Postby SteMiS » September 15th, 2018, 9:48 am

Sundance13 wrote:
Ashfordian wrote:I see the FT and BBC have now resorted to Fake News regarding a forecast property crash made by Mark Carney.

The BBC still have this as headline news despite their own economics editor rubbishing the story

The FT really should be doing some proper journalistic investigations into these stories rather than simply being a mouthpiece for Project Fear

By ‘fake’ news you mean news that suggests something negative about Brexit?

It's called 'distraction'. Over exaggerate and inflate a comment about the consequences of Brexit and then when it fails to happen, cry 'project fear!' and hope no one notices the actual negative impact.

ursaminortaur
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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166551

Postby ursaminortaur » September 15th, 2018, 11:58 am

Sorcery wrote:
DiamondEcho wrote:Sorcery wrote:
[and the Morning Star (a communist rag) was quite successful with it's share information/tips etc. Think this might be the online version http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx



Morningstar is a very highly respected apoliticial source of financial news. Zero shouty 'read this' headlines, zero ads.

Think about it, a 'communist rag' isn't going to be giving you share tips, is it?


The communist rag is still around without the share section : https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/
It was in the 1970s that I became aware of the paradox (communism + shares) in the same newspaper. That's what made it interesting. I have no idea what has happened in between. The link http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/equities/default.aspx looks like it's USA based and may or may not share more than the name.


Totally different organisations with nothing more in common than the name.

The communist newspaper was founded in the UK in the 1930s originally as the Daily Worker and renamed as Morningstar in 1966

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morning_Star_(British_newspaper)


The Morning Star is a left-wing British daily tabloid newspaper with a focus on social, political and trade union issues.[3]
The paper was founded in 1930 as the Daily Worker by the Communist Party of Great Britain (CPGB). Since 1945, it has been owned by the People's Press Printing Society. It was renamed the Morning Star in 1966. The paper's editorial stance is in line with Britain's Road to Socialism, the programme of the Communist Party of Britain.[4] Articles and comment columns are now contributed by writers from socialist, communist, social democratic, Green and religious perspectives.[3]


The newspaper refers to itself as a reader-owned co-operative

https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/




The investment company was founded in America in 1984

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morningstar,_Inc.

Founder Joe Mansueto initially had the idea for Morningstar in 1982 while reviewing mutual fund annual reports he had requested from several prominent fund managers.[3] However, it was only after a year working as a stock analyst for Harris Associates, seeing the fund industry and potential competitors up close, that he was convinced that the opportunity was there.[3][4] Morningstar was subsequently founded in 1984 from his one-bedroom Chicago apartment with an initial investment of US$80,000.[5] The name Morningstar is taken from the last sentence in Walden, a book by Henry David Thoreau; "the sun is but a morning star".[5][6]

The investment company is a publicly traded company whose initial public offering took place in 2005

Morningstar's initial public offering occurred on May 3, 2005, with 7,612,500 shares at $18.50 each.[8] The manner in which Morningstar went public is notable. They elected to follow Google's footsteps and use the OpenIPO method rather than the traditional method. This allowed individual investors to bid on the price of the stock, and allowed all investors equal access.
As of February 2015, Joe Mansueto owned approximately 55% of the outstanding shares in Morningstar

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166558

Postby XFool » September 15th, 2018, 12:38 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:Carney has been anything but clear.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... binet-met/

But his choice of words, even here, is open to interpretation. Is he saying that the house price crash is unlikely or that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely?
And were the politicians at the Cabinet meeting similarly confused by what Carney had said? Did the governor scare them when what he was trying to do was reassure them? Or was he deliberately vague in the hope that the totemic issue of house prices would help pull the politicians together to seek a deal with Brussels?


Central bankers should not speak deviously nor in riddles. He should go.

Can we take it that is because he isn't saying what some Brexiteers think he ought to be saying?

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166650

Postby Nimrod103 » September 16th, 2018, 8:51 am

XFool wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Carney has been anything but clear.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... binet-met/

But his choice of words, even here, is open to interpretation. Is he saying that the house price crash is unlikely or that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely?
And were the politicians at the Cabinet meeting similarly confused by what Carney had said? Did the governor scare them when what he was trying to do was reassure them? Or was he deliberately vague in the hope that the totemic issue of house prices would help pull the politicians together to seek a deal with Brussels?


Central bankers should not speak deviously nor in riddles. He should go.

Can we take it that is because he isn't saying what some Brexiteers think he ought to be saying?


What should he be saying? His doom laden predictions have not been officially denied nor modified, so one has to suppose he is doing the Treasury's bidding. Remainer journalist Jeremy Warner thinks so too (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -warnings/):

Whatever Mr Carney was trying to say, the message is none the less out there: “Governor warns that a no-deal Brexit will cause a 35pc fall in house prices”. At the time of writing, no on-the-record attempt had been made to counter it, compounding the suspicion among Brexit ultras that it was a deliberate ploy, encouraged by the Treasury, to quash any serious contemplation of a WTO-style Brexit.

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166672

Postby Sundance13 » September 16th, 2018, 10:35 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
XFool wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Carney has been anything but clear.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... binet-met/

But his choice of words, even here, is open to interpretation. Is he saying that the house price crash is unlikely or that a no-deal Brexit is unlikely?
And were the politicians at the Cabinet meeting similarly confused by what Carney had said? Did the governor scare them when what he was trying to do was reassure them? Or was he deliberately vague in the hope that the totemic issue of house prices would help pull the politicians together to seek a deal with Brussels?


Central bankers should not speak deviously nor in riddles. He should go.

Can we take it that is because he isn't saying what some Brexiteers think he ought to be saying?


What should he be saying? His doom laden predictions have not been officially denied nor modified, so one has to suppose he is doing the Treasury's bidding. Remainer journalist Jeremy Warner thinks so too (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -warnings/):

Whatever Mr Carney was trying to say, the message is none the less out there: “Governor warns that a no-deal Brexit will cause a 35pc fall in house prices”. At the time of writing, no on-the-record attempt had been made to counter it, compounding the suspicion among Brexit ultras that it was a deliberate ploy, encouraged by the Treasury, to quash any serious contemplation of a WTO-style Brexit.



But you don’t have any evidence he is being deliberately ‘doom laden’ just to undermine Brexit, all he is doing is repeating the same themes as pretty much every other economist, business leader and expert is saying, that a WTO Brexit would be very bad for the economy.

My only criticism of him is his putting out specific figures like the 35%, he’s be better sticking with broad ranges that better reflect the difficulty of economic forecasting.

It’s the media that’s responsible for twisting words like ‘could’ into ‘would’, is that to add fuel to the Project Fear theory, or just bad reporting?

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166741

Postby Itsallaguess » September 16th, 2018, 5:24 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
My only criticism of him is his putting out specific figures like the 35%, he’s be better sticking with broad ranges that better reflect the difficulty of economic forecasting.


Matt's got his own view, naturally -

https://i.imgur.com/g0RVrVP.png

https://tinyurl.com/y9l34u7y

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: More no deal Brexit consequences and a date for Blue Passports

#166777

Postby Nimrod103 » September 16th, 2018, 7:52 pm

Sundance13 wrote:It’s the media that’s responsible for twisting words like ‘could’ into ‘would’, is that to add fuel to the Project Fear theory, or just bad reporting?


We don't know what Carney's actual words were because these comments have found their way into the public domain indirectly. Bit like the lobby system, Carney and his friends have got their message of fear out, without anything being attributable. And yet Carney is not supposed to be a politician!? However, he has not denied the broad thrust of what was reported in the papers (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... brexit-no/), but everyone claims it was a scenario - yet a scenario is just a prediction to which a probability must be assigned. Carney appears not to be willing to assign a probability, and thus by default, he has allowed everyone to go off with the view that it is the most likely outcome, rather than have a probability of perhaps 0.1%. Same with could and would, they have no value without a probability added. Carney is being very irresponsible putting this stuff into the public domain with attaching a probability to it. He is useless and should go.


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