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Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

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ursaminortaur
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Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166710

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 1:10 pm

Is Gove, whilst supposedly supporting Chequers, really trying to undermine it ? He has now publicly speculated that the UK might undo the deal once the UK has left. Although a sovereign government could always take such actions there would obviously be consequences from whatever the EU's response was at the time. However raising such a possibilty in public at this time seems somewhat irresponsible and brings to mind David Davis' statement about the December agreement not being legally binding which led to the EU insisting that the agreement was made into a legally binding text. I'd expect that affter that statement the EU will insist that any future agreement, whether based on Chequers or not, will include a guillotine arrangement, similar to that the EU has in its agreemebts with Switzerland, so that any change by the UK revokes the whole agreement.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/chequers-deal-undone-after-britain-leaves-eu-michael-gove-brexit

MPs could undo the Chequers deal once the UK has left the EU, Michael Gove has claimed, saying the prime minister’s proposal was the “right one for now”.
The environment secretary, a prominent Brexiter, has regularly made a similar case in private to MPs, urging them to back May to see through Britain’s exit rather than risk an impasse in parliament or a general election.
If the EU changed its rules to disadvantage Britain, he said, it would be up to parliament to “chart this nation’s destiny” and potentially change the relationship, he said.


https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/eu-insist-brexit-deal-legally-binding-david-davis-gaffe/

Brussels is to harden its stance on the Brexit deal struck on Friday between the UK and EU following outspoken comments by David Davis, who claimed the agreement was not legally binding. Officials in Europe are expected to demand the arrangement forged last week be made into a legally binding treaty before any talks can progress onto trade.
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In a copy seen by The Times, a draft of the summit conclusions states: “Negotiations in the second phase can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken during the first phase are respected in full and translated faithfully in legal terms as quickly as possible.” The shift in tone comes just two days after the Brexit Secretary appeared on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, claiming that the withdrawal agreement was merely a “statement of intent”.


[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations[/url]

The Bilateral I agreements are expressed to be mutually dependent. If any one of them is denounced or not renewed, they all cease to apply. According to the preamble of the EU decision ratifying the agreements:
The seven agreements are intimately linked to one another by the requirement that they are to come into force at the same time and that they are to cease to apply at the same time, six months after the receipt of a non-renewal or denunciation notice concerning any one of them.[6]
This is referred to as the "Guillotine clause". While the bilateral approach theoretically safeguards the right to refuse the application of new EU rules to Switzerland, in practice the scope to do so is limited by the clause. The agreement on the European Economic Area contains a similar clause.
Last edited by ursaminortaur on September 16th, 2018, 1:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166713

Postby tea42 » September 16th, 2018, 1:21 pm

He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do. A pragmatic view of our future freed from directives from unelected Brussels bureaucrats. Faced with implacable unbending nonsense ruling from the Germans its the way forward.

Al

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166715

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 1:29 pm

tea42 wrote:He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do. A pragmatic view of our future freed from directives from unelected Brussels bureaucrats. Faced with implacable unbending nonsense ruling from the Germans its the way forward.

Al


Of course we can but publicly stating that during negotiations is not a good idea. It just makes it look like the UK is negotiating in bad faith and will probably lead to the EU taking actions to make sure that any such change however small results in the whole agreement falling, rather than just that part having to be renegotiated, by imposing a guillotine clause on all agreements.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166719

Postby johnhemming » September 16th, 2018, 2:05 pm

tea42 wrote:He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do.

What makes it more likely that we will be able to negotiate new agreements in say 2023 than now?

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166721

Postby tea42 » September 16th, 2018, 2:33 pm

johnhemming wrote:
tea42 wrote:He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do.

What makes it more likely that we will be able to negotiate new agreements in say 2023 than now?


Simply that we will be running our own affairs and in a much stronger position having left. Focuses everthing down to the specific matter in hand rather than dozens of issues like right now.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166752

Postby BobbyD » September 16th, 2018, 6:20 pm

johnhemming wrote:
tea42 wrote:He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do.

What makes it more likely that we will be able to negotiate new agreements in say 2023 than now?


I have no doubt we could negotiate new agreements, no idea why would be able to negotiate better ones though... If you want to walk out of an agreement and demand better terms you need to be a clearly dominant party in a relationship which is essential to the other party. That's why negotiating an agreement which provides for the sunlit uplands the Brexiteers can see in their mind's eye is proving impossible now, and that isn't going to have changed by 2023. If anything the more likely scenario is the EU coming back to a more peripheral UK on which they are less reliant and saying 'about that deal we struck...'.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166754

Postby johnhemming » September 16th, 2018, 6:22 pm

Furthermore we won't have a position in respect of the divorce bill as that will be partially paid.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166761

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 6:43 pm

BobbyD wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
tea42 wrote:He's correct, when we are back in charge of our own affairs, and when we find any of the EU rules arent working for us we can negotiate new agreements that do.

What makes it more likely that we will be able to negotiate new agreements in say 2023 than now?


I have no doubt we could negotiate new agreements, no idea why would be able to negotiate better ones though... If you want to walk out of an agreement and demand better terms you need to be a clearly dominant party in a relationship which is essential to the other party. That's why negotiating an agreement which provides for the sunlit uplands the Brexiteers can see in their mind's eye is proving impossible now, and that isn't going to have changed by 2023. If anything the more likely scenario is the EU coming back to a more peripheral UK on which they are less reliant and saying 'about that deal we struck...'.


If a deal is done then the only circumstances in which I can see it being renegotiated is if it has become obvious that the economic consequences were terrible and a majority of the population were pushing for us to rejoin at the earliest opportunity. Otherwise I can't see either Parliament or the country having any appetite for re-opening negotiations with the EU. After this statement from Gove I really can't see the EU accepting any deal without imposing a guillotine clause so any such renegotiation would be of the whole agreement not just particular bits. For the next decade the UK would also be trying to sort out the mess that brexit has created by forging FTAs with other countries etc Diverting effort into more negotiations with the EU would be counterproductive and might even stop those FTA negotiations if it meant that the UK's relationship with the EU was again totally up in the air.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166767

Postby Nimrod103 » September 16th, 2018, 7:12 pm

I am sure Gove is correct, in that future governments cannot be bound by prior agreements. In practise I think future Govts will really try to avoid going anywhere near revising relations with the EU because it could reopen old wounds. However, it is possible to imagine a scenario where it becomes blatantly obvious that the UK's interests are suffering because of EU actions, and the old wounds will start to bleed again, requiring Govt action.

IMV the Brexiteers have a short term problem, but May and Chequers has a long term problem. If May is challenged soon and Chequers fails, she will pull the cord on the suicide vest, and will precipitate a GE which COrbyn could win. Brexit and British future prosperity will be lost and the Brexiteers will be blamed, However, if as I believe, Chequers (or something very near) is passed and agreed, it will be regarded as a sell out by a significant number of Tories, who will not vote Tory in a GE in 2022. In fact IMV, the Tory party will be finished.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166779

Postby Ashfordian » September 16th, 2018, 8:04 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:I am sure Gove is correct, in that future governments cannot be bound by prior agreements. In practise I think future Govts will really try to avoid going anywhere near revising relations with the EU because it could reopen old wounds. However, it is possible to imagine a scenario where it becomes blatantly obvious that the UK's interests are suffering because of EU actions, and the old wounds will start to bleed again, requiring Govt action.

IMV the Brexiteers have a short term problem, but May and Chequers has a long term problem. If May is challenged soon and Chequers fails, she will pull the cord on the suicide vest, and will precipitate a GE which COrbyn could win. Brexit and British future prosperity will be lost and the Brexiteers will be blamed, However, if as I believe, Chequers (or something very near) is passed and agreed, it will be regarded as a sell out by a significant number of Tories, who will not vote Tory in a GE in 2022. In fact IMV, the Tory party will be finished.


I'm struggling to see how Chequers gets through Parliament. Labour and the Lib Dems have said they will vote against it and obviously the SNP will. As there are enough dissenting Tory's then a vote on Chequers fails.

The question is what May does when chequers fails? Does she resign or will there be a 48 letters with the 1922 committee chairman forcing a leadership contest. I suspect the latter. I don't see a leadership contest happening until parliament have a vote on chequers.

Conservatives will do anything to not have a GE before 2022.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166785

Postby Nimrod103 » September 16th, 2018, 8:18 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:I am sure Gove is correct, in that future governments cannot be bound by prior agreements. In practise I think future Govts will really try to avoid going anywhere near revising relations with the EU because it could reopen old wounds. However, it is possible to imagine a scenario where it becomes blatantly obvious that the UK's interests are suffering because of EU actions, and the old wounds will start to bleed again, requiring Govt action.

IMV the Brexiteers have a short term problem, but May and Chequers has a long term problem. If May is challenged soon and Chequers fails, she will pull the cord on the suicide vest, and will precipitate a GE which COrbyn could win. Brexit and British future prosperity will be lost and the Brexiteers will be blamed, However, if as I believe, Chequers (or something very near) is passed and agreed, it will be regarded as a sell out by a significant number of Tories, who will not vote Tory in a GE in 2022. In fact IMV, the Tory party will be finished.


I'm struggling to see how Chequers gets through Parliament. Labour and the Lib Dems have said they will vote against it and obviously the SNP will. As there are enough dissenting Tory's then a vote on Chequers fails.

The question is what May does when chequers fails? Does she resign or will there be a 48 letters with the 1922 committee chairman forcing a leadership contest. I suspect the latter. I don't see a leadership contest happening until parliament have a vote on chequers.

Conservatives will do anything to not have a GE before 2022.


How will Chequers get through Parliament? I don't know, but I think it could do. I believe some Labour MPs and the LibDems will vote for it, and I think May will make it a confidence vote, and the number of Tories voting against will be fewer than threatened. If we get closer to the vote, and it looks like failing, maybe Merkel will ride to the rescue with a few well chosen words, in order to save May's skin.

edit to add, if there was a real danger of a Corbyn Govt, the DUP will fall into line behind May. The SNP can be bought, also Plaid Cymru.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166787

Postby BobbyD » September 16th, 2018, 8:21 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:If a deal is done then the only circumstances in which I can see it being renegotiated is if it has become obvious that the economic consequences were terrible and a majority of the population were pushing for us to rejoin at the earliest opportunity. Otherwise I can't see either Parliament or the country having any appetite for re-opening negotiations with the EU.


Renegotiating from a position of penury...

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166791

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 8:30 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:I am sure Gove is correct, in that future governments cannot be bound by prior agreements. In practise I think future Govts will really try to avoid going anywhere near revising relations with the EU because it could reopen old wounds. However, it is possible to imagine a scenario where it becomes blatantly obvious that the UK's interests are suffering because of EU actions, and the old wounds will start to bleed again, requiring Govt action.

IMV the Brexiteers have a short term problem, but May and Chequers has a long term problem. If May is challenged soon and Chequers fails, she will pull the cord on the suicide vest, and will precipitate a GE which COrbyn could win. Brexit and British future prosperity will be lost and the Brexiteers will be blamed, However, if as I believe, Chequers (or something very near) is passed and agreed, it will be regarded as a sell out by a significant number of Tories, who will not vote Tory in a GE in 2022. In fact IMV, the Tory party will be finished.


I'm struggling to see how Chequers gets through Parliament. Labour and the Lib Dems have said they will vote against it and obviously the SNP will. As there are enough dissenting Tory's then a vote on Chequers fails.

The question is what May does when chequers fails? Does she resign or will there be a 48 letters with the 1922 committee chairman forcing a leadership contest. I suspect the latter. I don't see a leadership contest happening until parliament have a vote on chequers.

Conservatives will do anything to not have a GE before 2022.


Some of the main planks of Chequers such as the facilitated customs arrangement have been thoroughly rejected by the EU. Hence if there is to be a deal it will have to be some sort of son of Chequers. Unfortunately we don't know what form that will take and hence can't be sure what will happen in the parliamentary vote. It could range from May deciding after all to stay in a customs union with the EU (probably with suitably fudged text to obscure that fact) which would be closer to the position of the Labour party and might therefore garner enough support or to conclude a deal which in effect remains in the EEA which would probably garner enough support from all parts of the house, or to go for a Canada style deal with an Irish border backstop and hope that the fear of nodeal will allow it to squeak through. The EU though will never accept Chequers in its current form so any statements currently made by other parties about voting on the Chequers deal are meaningless. Since the EU won't accept it it won't come to parliament for a vote in its current form.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166792

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 8:35 pm

BobbyD wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:If a deal is done then the only circumstances in which I can see it being renegotiated is if it has become obvious that the economic consequences were terrible and a majority of the population were pushing for us to rejoin at the earliest opportunity. Otherwise I can't see either Parliament or the country having any appetite for re-opening negotiations with the EU.


Renegotiating from a position of penury...


Yes - negotiating to rejoin at that point would be painful and humiliating with all opt outs gone, required to commit to join Schengen and the Euro, and having the rebate removed or at the very least severely reduced. It would be much better to revoke Article 50 now before leaving.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166794

Postby Ashfordian » September 16th, 2018, 8:44 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:If a deal is done then the only circumstances in which I can see it being renegotiated is if it has become obvious that the economic consequences were terrible and a majority of the population were pushing for us to rejoin at the earliest opportunity. Otherwise I can't see either Parliament or the country having any appetite for re-opening negotiations with the EU.


Renegotiating from a position of penury...


Yes - negotiating to rejoin at that point would be painful and humiliating with all opt outs gone, required to commit to join Schengen and the Euro, and having the rebate removed or at the very least severely reduced. It would be much better to revoke Article 50 now before leaving.


Or leave and be completely out of it and its numerous current & future problems.

There is one thing for sure, we should not be wanting to be a member of a political organisation that if the reports are true(?), will restrict medicine supplies because its population voted to leave said political organisation!

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166797

Postby ursaminortaur » September 16th, 2018, 9:10 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Renegotiating from a position of penury...


Yes - negotiating to rejoin at that point would be painful and humiliating with all opt outs gone, required to commit to join Schengen and the Euro, and having the rebate removed or at the very least severely reduced. It would be much better to revoke Article 50 now before leaving.


Or leave and be completely out of it and all its numerous current & future problems.

There is one thing for sure, we should not be wanting to be a member of a political organisation that if the reports are true(?), will restrict medicine supplies because its population voted to leave said political organisation!


The UK decided to leave and if it leaves without an agreement then certification of medicines becomes a problem - though in that particular case probably even more of a problem for the EU than the UK since the UK could decide to continue to accept EU certified medicines.
The more likely problem for the UK though is that disruption at the ports because of the new customs arrangements would disrupt supplies of medicines between the UK and EU in both directions which is why there is talk of stockpiling. That disruption at the ports would though be a direct consequence of leaving the Single Market and EU customs union rather than something that the EU imposed as a punishment.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86361

By remaining in the EEA (as this is an EEA-wide system), or by seeking a negotiated settlement, where UK approvals (and UK-led Community authorisations) would be recognised, EU trade could continue without penalty.

However, should Madam May go walkabout, all bets are off. If the UK unilaterally broke off the negotiations and walked away from the table, it would leave the necessary amendments hanging. Without a mutual recognition agreement or some other device, the EU would be within its rights to refuse any products relying on UK authorisations. Perversely, EU products would remain authorised for sale in the UK.

To restore trade in the absence of any settlement, UK companies could have to work though businesses established in the EU – either subsidiaries or agents – and could be required to resubmit their products for authorisation, at considerable cost and with years of delay. Application fees payable to the EMA currently start at €278,800 per product.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166799

Postby Quint » September 16th, 2018, 9:15 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Renegotiating from a position of penury...


Yes - negotiating to rejoin at that point would be painful and humiliating with all opt outs gone, required to commit to join Schengen and the Euro, and having the rebate removed or at the very least severely reduced. It would be much better to revoke Article 50 now before leaving.


Or leave and be completely out of it and its numerous current & future problems.

There is one thing for sure, we should not be wanting to be a member of a political organisation that if the reports are true(?), will restrict medicine supplies because its population voted to leave said political organisation!


It seems to me that it has always been evident that the European project is more important than the people that live in the EU. That position in itself is of concern to me.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166802

Postby csearle » September 16th, 2018, 10:09 pm

As you possibly know I'm a "Leaver" (as is/was Mr Gove). I suspect his speculation is a ploy to win over people like me to the Chequers agreement. I think he is a clever guy but I'm put off by his fingerprints still being on the dagger.

Regards,
Chris

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#166968

Postby quelquod » September 17th, 2018, 4:17 pm

csearle wrote:As you possibly know I'm a "Leaver" (as is/was Mr Gove). I suspect his speculation is a ploy to win over people like me to the Chequers agreement. I think he is a clever guy but I'm put off by his fingerprints still being on the dagger.

Regards,
Chris

I feel that way too. Gove is getting a bit of a track record in bending with the breeze though.

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Re: Gove: Chequers could be changed after brexit

#167071

Postby tjh290633 » September 18th, 2018, 1:30 am

It's not too late to walk away.

TJH


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