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BREXIT

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ursaminortaur
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Re: BREXIT

#192920

Postby ursaminortaur » January 12th, 2019, 1:05 am

zico wrote:To try to settle the "Is it 8% or 4%" debate?

Imagine the result had been 66.6% Remain and 33.3% Leave.
How best to express this?
a) Twice as many voted Remain as voted Leave.
b) Remain had a 33.3% margin of victory.


Imagine it was leave 100% to remain 0%

So would it be best expressed as

a) Infinitely as many voted Leave as voted Remain (100/0)
b) Leave had a 100% margin of victory.

The problem with a) is that it exaggerates the difference because you are both increasing the difference in the numerator and also at the same time decreasing the denominator. b) is much better since in the formula leave_percentage - remain_percentage or equivalently
((leave_votes - remain_votes)/total_votes)*100
the denominator remains constant no matter what changes are made to the relative sizes of the leave_percentage/leave_votes and remain_percentage/remain_votes.

* Note I've switched leave and remain around to reflect the 52:48 result since that was what Lootman used to claim the 8% percentage lead
(should actually be 1.08333 recurring as many voted leave as voted remain by that measure). If it was a 66 2/3% versus 33 1/3% victory for leave that would as you say be 2 times as many leave voters as voted remain or as Lootman would have it a 100% margin of victory.
If it was 75% to 25% it would be 3 times which would in his view a 200% margin of victory.

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Re: BREXIT

#192922

Postby Lootman » January 12th, 2019, 2:38 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
zico wrote:To try to settle the "Is it 8% or 4%" debate?

Imagine the result had been 66.6% Remain and 33.3% Leave.
How best to express this?
a) Twice as many voted Remain as voted Leave.
b) Remain had a 33.3% margin of victory.

I've switched leave and remain around to reflect the 52:48 result since that was what Lootman used to claim the 8% percentage lead
(should actually be 1.08333 recurring as many voted leave as voted remain by that measure). If it was a 66 2/3% versus 33 1/3% victory for leave that would as you say be 2 times as many leave voters as voted remain or as Lootman would have it a 100% margin of victory.
If it was 75% to 25% it would be 3 times which would in his view a 200% margin of victory.

Your 100/0 "infinity" example is just plain silly so I will ignore it.

It's not a percentage of 8.333 recurring. As I noted earlier, it was actually 7.865% more Leave voters than Remain voters. But let's just call it 8% for simplicity.

And please do not put words into my mouth. If Remain had won 66.66% to 33.33% then I would probably have described that as there being twice as many Remain voters as Leave voters. If it were 75/25 then it would be accurate to say that Remain voters were treble the number of Leave voters. And so on.

It's helpful to look at the numbers this way. It means that, on average and rounding, in a room of 25 people there will be 13 Leavers to every 12 Remainers. To reverse the outcome, one of those 25 needs to be switched from Leave to Remain.

And that is 4% of the people in the room - half of the 8% number i cited. QED.

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Re: BREXIT

#192929

Postby GeoffF100 » January 12th, 2019, 7:22 am

richfool wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:"This is the fundamental dishonesty at the heart of the Brexit debate. Most MPs now recognise it in private, but do not say it in public":

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1 ... 4643347456

I actually watched him making that short speech in the commons a day or so back. I thought it was "a load of tosh", as the saying goes. It was an emotive, biased, tainted and prejudiced view, with a good helping of scaremongering/project fear thrown in, from an MP who is openly and actively ignoring the democratic wishes of the people and is trying to thwart Brexit..

If there was a trick, a swindle, a fraud, it was when we were originally conned into joining the EU. Some Ministers apparently knew then that it was a project leading to a federalist Europe. Since then the EU has been bullying member countries and progressively taking away their sovereignty. The sooner we are out, the better.

That is a list of insults, with no facts or reasoning.

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Re: BREXIT

#192939

Postby richfool » January 12th, 2019, 8:28 am

GeoffF100 wrote:
richfool wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:"This is the fundamental dishonesty at the heart of the Brexit debate. Most MPs now recognise it in private, but do not say it in public":

https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1 ... 4643347456

I actually watched him making that short speech in the commons a day or so back. I thought it was "a load of tosh", as the saying goes. It was an emotive, biased, tainted and prejudiced view, with a good helping of scaremongering/project fear thrown in, from an MP who is openly and actively ignoring the democratic wishes of the people and is trying to thwart Brexit..

If there was a trick, a swindle, a fraud, it was when we were originally conned into joining the EU. Some Ministers apparently knew then that it was a project leading to a federalist Europe. Since then the EU has been bullying member countries and progressively taking away their sovereignty. The sooner we are out, the better.

That is a list of insults, with no facts or reasoning.

Rather like David Lammy's speech then.

Try this for size:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsto ... nment.html

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Re: BREXIT

#192944

Postby richfool » January 12th, 2019, 8:57 am

Or these which indicate to me that many MP's knew what we were getting into:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/201 ... what-we-w/

https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/06 ... illegally/

ursaminortaur
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Re: BREXIT

#192995

Postby ursaminortaur » January 12th, 2019, 12:47 pm

Lootman wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
zico wrote:To try to settle the "Is it 8% or 4%" debate?

Imagine the result had been 66.6% Remain and 33.3% Leave.
How best to express this?
a) Twice as many voted Remain as voted Leave.
b) Remain had a 33.3% margin of victory.

I've switched leave and remain around to reflect the 52:48 result since that was what Lootman used to claim the 8% percentage lead
(should actually be 1.08333 recurring as many voted leave as voted remain by that measure). If it was a 66 2/3% versus 33 1/3% victory for leave that would as you say be 2 times as many leave voters as voted remain or as Lootman would have it a 100% margin of victory.
If it was 75% to 25% it would be 3 times which would in his view a 200% margin of victory.

Your 100/0 "infinity" example is just plain silly so I will ignore it.

It's not a percentage of 8.333 recurring. As I noted earlier, it was actually 7.865% more Leave voters than Remain voters. But let's just call it 8% for simplicity.

And please do not put words into my mouth. If Remain had won 66.66% to 33.33% then I would probably have described that as there being twice as many Remain voters as Leave voters. If it were 75/25 then it would be accurate to say that Remain voters were treble the number of Leave voters. And so on.

It's helpful to look at the numbers this way. It means that, on average and rounding, in a room of 25 people there will be 13 Leavers to every 12 Remainers. To reverse the outcome, one of those 25 needs to be switched from Leave to Remain.

And that is 4% of the people in the room - half of the 8% number i cited. QED.


Yes sorry I was using the rounded percentages 52/48 as indicated. You are correct I should have used the actual votes
17,410,742 / 16,141,241 = 1.07865

But you are missing the point that your method stretches out the results in a non-linear manner to give answers in the range 0 to infinity rather than 0 to 100%. To compare margins you have to be comparing them as percentages of the same thing. That works with percentages of the total vote. It doesn't work as percentages of the losers-votes because as the losers vote decreases the denominator in your calculation decreases so the percentage you are dealing with is a percentage of a decreasing quantity rather than of a stable quantity such as the total_votes.

Using your method the actual result is 17,410,742 / 16,141,241 = 1.07865 which is 7.865% more of 16,141,241

Suppose instead though the result had been

16775992 to 16775991 (ie leave winning by 1 vote with the same total number of votes)

Then by your calculation that would be 16775992/16775991 = 1.00000006 which is 0.0000006% more of 16,775,991

but because those are percentages of different things they CANNOT be compared as percentages.

In comparison the standard method provides percentages of the total_vote ie of 33,551,983 which means those percentages can be compared.

Since using your method you cannot compare percentages for different voting patterns with the same voters you cannot use it to produce a figure for the required swing for remain to have won. As you say QED.

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Re: BREXIT

#193054

Postby richfool » January 12th, 2019, 4:39 pm

Perhaps it's simpler to just look at the actual numbers in the referendum:

The number voting leave was: 17,410,742
The number voting remain was: 16,141,241
Difference/majority in favour of leave: 1,269,501

I noted that the figures in England alone were much greater in favour of Brexit:

15,188,406 Leave versus 13,266,996 Remain,
Difference favouring Leave: 1,921,410 ( 53.4% Leave -v- 46.6% Remain).
Scotland and N Ireland's votes favoured Leave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_ ... um/results

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Re: BREXIT

#193067

Postby Charlottesquare » January 12th, 2019, 5:21 pm

richfool wrote:Perhaps it's simpler to just look at the actual numbers in the referendum:

The number voting leave was: 17,410,742
The number voting remain was: 16,141,241
Difference/majority in favour of leave: 1,269,501

I noted that the figures in England alone were much greater in favour of Brexit:

15,188,406 Leave versus 13,266,996 Remain,
Difference favouring Leave: 1,921,410 ( 53.4% Leave -v- 46.6% Remain).
Scotland and N Ireland's votes favoured Leave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_ ... um/results


I think you intended Remain with your last one, either that or maybe there has been another Referendum since 2016 that I have missed. :D

Stonge
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Re: BREXIT

#193258

Postby Stonge » January 13th, 2019, 5:10 pm

Lootman wrote:There have been other attempts to characterise voters, such as ... and some uglier ones.


Do they have me on camera at the polling station?

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Re: BREXIT

#193295

Postby XFool » January 13th, 2019, 8:24 pm

Stonge wrote:
Lootman wrote:There have been other attempts to characterise voters, such as ... and some uglier ones.

Do they have me on camera at the polling station?

They would have, but I heard you broke the camera lens. ;)

ursaminortaur
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Re: BREXIT

#193309

Postby ursaminortaur » January 13th, 2019, 9:44 pm

The Guardian is reporting that the EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July if the UK requests it.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/eu-preparing-to-delay-brexit-until-at-least-july

The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
A special leaders’ summit to push back Brexit day is expected to be convened by the European council president, Donald Tusk, once a UK request is received. EU officials said the length of the prolongation of the negotiating period allowed under article 50 would be determined based on the reason put forward by May for the delay.
A “technical” extension until July is a probable first step to give May extra time to revise and ratify the current deal once Downing Street has a clear idea as to what will command a majority in the Commons.

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Re: BREXIT

#193311

Postby Snorvey » January 13th, 2019, 10:01 pm

the Independent' s front page tomorrow is reporting that MP's are taking the first steps towards a second referendum

ursaminortaur
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Re: BREXIT

#193335

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 1:21 am

Snorvey wrote:the Independent' s front page tomorrow is reporting that MP's are taking the first steps towards a second referendum


Now on the website

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-meaningful-vote-final-say-referendum-dominic-grieve-a8725971.html

Senior MPs are set to take the first steps in parliament towards a fresh Brexit referendum this week.
As Theresa May faces defeat on her withdrawal agreement on Tuesday, MPs from the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP have drawn up legislation that would deliver a Final Say on Brexit.
The two bills – to establish the legal framework for a referendum and decide what is on the ballot paper – could be put forward as early as Wednesday, The Independent understands.

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Re: BREXIT

#193339

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2019, 7:11 am

This should please everyone, a second vote and a Sovereign Parliament. Who said there was no compromise position?

ursaminortaur
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Re: BREXIT

#193395

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 11:12 am

It seems May can't even remember her own voting record when it comes to accepting the results of previous referendums as she claims that the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum result was never questioned


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pms-last-ditch-brexit-plea-backfires-after-false-welsh-assembly-claim-a8726636.html

A key section of the address - due to be delivered on Monday - claims the result of the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum was “accepted by both sides” and the “popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned”.
.
.
.
But the prime minister was accused of “utter hypocrisy” after it quickly emerged that after being elected to parliament, in 1997, Ms May voted against a bill that sought to implement the result of the referendum.
.
.
.
And in 2005, the Conservative party in its general election manifesto stated: “In Wales we will work with the Assembly and give the Welsh people a referendum on whether to keep the Assembly in its current form, increase its powers or abolish it.

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Re: BREXIT

#193405

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2019, 11:47 am

I believe the word 'floundering ' was coined in anticipation of May's 'government'.

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Re: BREXIT

#193411

Postby mike » January 14th, 2019, 11:59 am

ursaminortaur wrote:It seems May can't even remember her own voting record when it comes to accepting the results of previous referendums as she claims that the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum result was never questioned


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pms-last-ditch-brexit-plea-backfires-after-false-welsh-assembly-claim-a8726636.html

A key section of the address - due to be delivered on Monday - claims the result of the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum was “accepted by both sides” and the “popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned”.
.
.
.
But the prime minister was accused of “utter hypocrisy” after it quickly emerged that after being elected to parliament, in 1997, Ms May voted against a bill that sought to implement the result of the referendum.
.
.
.
And in 2005, the Conservative party in its general election manifesto stated: “In Wales we will work with the Assembly and give the Welsh people a referendum on whether to keep the Assembly in its current form, increase its powers or abolish it.


Seems like this part of the proposed speech was not given !
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1084777824295288833

I would hope her omission will get greater coverage and examination as the day goes on.

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Re: BREXIT

#193426

Postby GoSeigen » January 14th, 2019, 12:27 pm

BobbyD wrote:I believe the word 'floundering ' was coined in anticipation of May's 'government'.


Hmm there's something 'fishy' about this sentence!


GS

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Re: BREXIT

#193427

Postby Snorvey » January 14th, 2019, 12:28 pm

Hmm there's something 'fishy' about this sentence!

Jeezus, you're giving me a haddock.

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Re: BREXIT

#193440

Postby mike » January 14th, 2019, 12:53 pm

mike wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:It seems May can't even remember her own voting record when it comes to accepting the results of previous referendums as she claims that the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum result was never questioned


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pms-last-ditch-brexit-plea-backfires-after-false-welsh-assembly-claim-a8726636.html

A key section of the address - due to be delivered on Monday - claims the result of the 1997 Welsh Assembly referendum was “accepted by both sides” and the “popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned”.
.
.
.
But the prime minister was accused of “utter hypocrisy” after it quickly emerged that after being elected to parliament, in 1997, Ms May voted against a bill that sought to implement the result of the referendum.


Seems like this part of the proposed speech was not given !
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1084777824295288833

I would hope her omission will get greater coverage and examination as the day goes on.


Apologies from me and note to self: Don't believe stuff posted on twitter. Dunt has corrected himself.

The actual details were more nuanced

May retracted her false claim that the result of the referendum on Welsh devolution was accepted by both main parties. (See 10.25am.) In extracts from the speech released overnight she said:

When the people of Wales voted by a margin of 0.3%, on a turnout of just over 50%, to endorse the creation of the Welsh assembly, that result was accepted by both sides and the popular legitimacy of that institution has never seriously been questioned.

After it was pointed out that the Conservative party did contest the result of the 1997 referendum [May voted against the creation of the Assembly], she instead said this morning:

When the people of Wales voted by a margin of 0.3%, on a turnout of just over 50%, to endorse the creation of the Welsh assembly, that result was accepted by parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/14/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-speech-liam-fox-claims-no-deal-survivable-as-may-launches-last-minute-bid-to-rescue-her-deal-politics-live Summary at 12:39

Apologies for casting a slur on our strong & stable PM !


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