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Brexit and house prices

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Charlottesquare
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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189128

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 2:01 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:It would help housing supply if the costs of moving were reduced. Stamp duty is a big disincentive to move - it reduces the attraction of buying medium to large houses, and in my area is encouraging a huge increase in house extension (up, down and sideways).

My impression travelling around is that we currently have high rates of new house building, and house enlargement throughout the country. In my own county of Kent, there are large new housing estates currently being added to my town and several others. I have just come down from Norfolk where the market towns I drove through are all being expanded, Last summer I was in the Cotswolds, and almost every village had new building in evidence. Given this, there is absolutely no reason for high prices, unless demand is still outstripping supply.

However, in all the areas of these new builds, there is no expenditure on infrastructure. Almost no new roads. No new railways. No new bus routes. Only more cars and congestion. No new schools with playing fields - the single new primary school built in my town just as a little yard, and people seem to think that is OK!!.


Completions are still low and well below pre 2008 levels, the smaller builders/developers (who built 30% of completions) got squeezed out of the market as they could not readily access debt funding and relied on banks and specialist property development funders- a lot of sites have lain moribund since (I directly have had dealings with two former ones we owned and now carry overages on and two a work colleague has an interest in, a total of over 100 houses)

However I did get some good news on one last week, a 35 unit site where we are no longer the developer but which we sold with a trailing overage has just, per the new developer, received agreement to fund from a bank- there are stirrings and maybe someone will now start actually completing the planned 24,000 North Edinburgh/Waterfront development which currently has a smattering of completed developments, now ageing, and a smattering of brownfield vacant sites.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189130

Postby TraderTed » December 24th, 2018, 2:08 pm

UK population doubled every 25 years


House prices double every 10 years. (Circa 7%).

It really is more about money supply than population.

Most of the new money supply comes from mortgages.
Only 10% of a mortgage is backed by current money supply (deposit) in our 10:1 fractional reserve banking system.
The other 90% of the loan is new money created by the bank! :o

I'd wait to see what Brexit brings. When we fell out of the ERM (Euro) 16th Sept 1992 rates reached 12%
(15% was threatened but never happened).
Double digit interest rates would double 25 year mortgage payments and thus half house prices.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189220

Postby GoSeigen » December 24th, 2018, 7:17 pm

TraderTed wrote:
UK population doubled every 25 years


House prices double every 10 years. (Circa 7%).

It really is more about money supply than population.


You misquoted me, not only removing most of my post but cutting off most of the sentence quoted! I wrote:

UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.


It is really more about other factors than immigration.

GS

Nimrod103
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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189226

Postby Nimrod103 » December 24th, 2018, 8:01 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:Completions are still low and well below pre 2008 levels,


Are completions low? I looked at this graph:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45725401
Which shows private housing completions on a sharply upward trajectory since 2012, reaching 160,000 in 2017, and presumably surpassing 200,000 in 2018. The country is being concreted over quite rapidly.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189229

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 8:12 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:Completions are still low and well below pre 2008 levels,


Are completions low? I looked at this graph:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45725401
Which shows private housing completions on a sharply upward trajectory since 2012, reaching 160,000 in 2017, and presumably surpassing 200,000 in 2018. The country is being concreted over quite rapidly.


I think they are relative to pre 2008 levels, will see if I can find some figures; most of that sort of stuff is in the office and I am not.

Edit-just found

Knight Fraank indicates just under 250k in 2007/2008, see page 3

https://content.knightfrank.com/researc ... 8-5682.pdf

Nimrod103
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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189234

Postby Nimrod103 » December 24th, 2018, 8:37 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:Completions are still low and well below pre 2008 levels,


Are completions low? I looked at this graph:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45725401
Which shows private housing completions on a sharply upward trajectory since 2012, reaching 160,000 in 2017, and presumably surpassing 200,000 in 2018. The country is being concreted over quite rapidly.


I think they are relative to pre 2008 levels, will see if I can find some figures; most of that sort of stuff is in the office and I am not.

Edit-just found

Knight Fraank indicates just under 250k in 2007/2008, see page 3

https://content.knightfrank.com/researc ... 8-5682.pdf


The Knight Frank report tells the same story as the BBC Reality Check, i.e. housing completions peaked in 2007/8, then dropped to c.150,000, but were back up very close to the 2008 peak again in 2016/17, and predicted to reach a new peak in 2017/18. Furthermore, Knight Frank predict c.250,000 housing completions for the next 6 years. In normal circumstances, this level of housing completion should see significant drops in real prices. Where are they? Also, the housing completion predictions belie the idea that building is currently limited by shortage of bricklayers and other building trades, who the UK has to continue importing.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189238

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 9:08 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Are completions low? I looked at this graph:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45725401
Which shows private housing completions on a sharply upward trajectory since 2012, reaching 160,000 in 2017, and presumably surpassing 200,000 in 2018. The country is being concreted over quite rapidly.


I think they are relative to pre 2008 levels, will see if I can find some figures; most of that sort of stuff is in the office and I am not.

Edit-just found

Knight Fraank indicates just under 250k in 2007/2008, see page 3

https://content.knightfrank.com/researc ... 8-5682.pdf


The Knight Frank report tells the same story as the BBC Reality Check, i.e. housing completions peaked in 2007/8, then dropped to c.150,000, but were back up very close to the 2008 peak again in 2016/17, and predicted to reach a new peak in 2017/18. Furthermore, Knight Frank predict c.250,000 housing completions for the next 6 years. In normal circumstances, this level of housing completion should see significant drops in real prices. Where are they? Also, the housing completion predictions belie the idea that building is currently limited by shortage of bricklayers and other building trades, who the UK has to continue importing.


Part of the trades shortages are being met by off site fabrication, modular building techniques etc. You will also note that Housing Associations are now a much bigger player re the total than previously, they in effect fill part of the void from far fewer private builders within the totals.

I really doubt 250,000 will lead to large drops in prices and of course if prices do start to drop volumes will reduce. The trouble with price drops is they do not discriminate from location A to location B that much, but construction costs are not that elastic with prices, so if the SE sneezes and the whole UK housing sector gets a cold, building may say continue in the SE with a 25% price drop but elsewhere will grind to a juddering halt, that will have families chasing housing, away from poorer areas, so the yo yo effect happens in the hotspots.

Like interest rates you have one set of rates hitting the entire country when all of it does not really need the cure, same applies re pricing drops.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189242

Postby Nimrod103 » December 24th, 2018, 9:37 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
I think they are relative to pre 2008 levels, will see if I can find some figures; most of that sort of stuff is in the office and I am not.

Edit-just found

Knight Fraank indicates just under 250k in 2007/2008, see page 3

https://content.knightfrank.com/researc ... 8-5682.pdf


The Knight Frank report tells the same story as the BBC Reality Check, i.e. housing completions peaked in 2007/8, then dropped to c.150,000, but were back up very close to the 2008 peak again in 2016/17, and predicted to reach a new peak in 2017/18. Furthermore, Knight Frank predict c.250,000 housing completions for the next 6 years. In normal circumstances, this level of housing completion should see significant drops in real prices. Where are they? Also, the housing completion predictions belie the idea that building is currently limited by shortage of bricklayers and other building trades, who the UK has to continue importing.


Part of the trades shortages are being met by off site fabrication, modular building techniques etc. You will also note that Housing Associations are now a much bigger player re the total than previously, they in effect fill part of the void from far fewer private builders within the totals.

I really doubt 250,000 will lead to large drops in prices and of course if prices do start to drop volumes will reduce. The trouble with price drops is they do not discriminate from location A to location B that much, but construction costs are not that elastic with prices, so if the SE sneezes and the whole UK housing sector gets a cold, building may say continue in the SE with a 25% price drop but elsewhere will grind to a juddering halt, that will have families chasing housing, away from poorer areas, so the yo yo effect happens in the hotspots.

Like interest rates you have one set of rates hitting the entire country when all of it does not really need the cure, same applies re pricing drops.


What I have seen of offsite fabrication modular building etc seems to be driven by a desire to cut costs, speed up construction and render better insulation than traditional brick. A lot of what I have seen has the appearance of being ready to fall down in about 10 years time.
The BBC article graph does not show any increase in construction by Housing Associations.

The Knight Frank report appears to me to be very upbeat on volumes to be built, and firm prices underpinning robust economics - particularly in SE England (see Knight Frank Figure 14). I assume they have insight into population trends and Govt policy, which indicates continued immigration into the South and Southeast.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189245

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 9:57 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
The Knight Frank report tells the same story as the BBC Reality Check, i.e. housing completions peaked in 2007/8, then dropped to c.150,000, but were back up very close to the 2008 peak again in 2016/17, and predicted to reach a new peak in 2017/18. Furthermore, Knight Frank predict c.250,000 housing completions for the next 6 years. In normal circumstances, this level of housing completion should see significant drops in real prices. Where are they? Also, the housing completion predictions belie the idea that building is currently limited by shortage of bricklayers and other building trades, who the UK has to continue importing.


Part of the trades shortages are being met by off site fabrication, modular building techniques etc. You will also note that Housing Associations are now a much bigger player re the total than previously, they in effect fill part of the void from far fewer private builders within the totals.

I really doubt 250,000 will lead to large drops in prices and of course if prices do start to drop volumes will reduce. The trouble with price drops is they do not discriminate from location A to location B that much, but construction costs are not that elastic with prices, so if the SE sneezes and the whole UK housing sector gets a cold, building may say continue in the SE with a 25% price drop but elsewhere will grind to a juddering halt, that will have families chasing housing, away from poorer areas, so the yo yo effect happens in the hotspots.

Like interest rates you have one set of rates hitting the entire country when all of it does not really need the cure, same applies re pricing drops.


What I have seen of offsite fabrication modular building etc seems to be driven by a desire to cut costs, speed up construction and render better insulation than traditional brick. A lot of what I have seen has the appearance of being ready to fall down in about 10 years time.
The BBC article graph does not show any increase in construction by Housing Associations.

The Knight Frank report appears to me to be very upbeat on volumes to be built, and firm prices underpinning robust economics - particularly in SE England (see Knight Frank Figure 14). I assume they have insight into population trends and Govt policy, which indicates continued immigration into the South and Southeast.


I would more say they have a vested interest being upbeat re their consultancy division etc, nothing being built no fees.

I am not convinced by the projected volumes but I am generally:

a. cynical

b. really out of construction projects except very small ones- we have been hoarding cash rather than being expansionist, partly due to the advancing years of the owners making them less bullish (if you make mistakes less years left to correct)but also Brexit/Indy Ref 2 concerns, if the economy takes big hits then this time we want to be on the right side of being prepared rather than 2008 which had us off balance and led to us fighting off the banks from about 2011 through to 2016.

As I mentioned I was chatting with the guy that bought out two of our sites post 2008 where we retained overage rights and he was pretty chirpy, he had sprung the funding to develop one of them from a bank, (£5m) however he is in his thirties I am in my fifties and have experienced more economic blows during my working life, so for instance when I cautioned slowing site works until after March he is instead going to be steaming ahead with the groundworks and hoping for the best, time will tell if this was a risk worth taking as property development is like pass the parcel; you do not want to get caught out when the music stops.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189253

Postby Nimrod103 » December 24th, 2018, 11:07 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:I would more say they have a vested interest being upbeat re their consultancy division etc, nothing being built no fees.

I am not convinced by the projected volumes but I am generally:

a. cynical

b. really out of construction projects except very small ones- we have been hoarding cash rather than being expansionist, partly due to the advancing years of the owners making them less bullish (if you make mistakes less years left to correct)but also Brexit/Indy Ref 2 concerns, if the economy takes big hits then this time we want to be on the right side of being prepared rather than 2008 which had us off balance and led to us fighting off the banks from about 2011 through to 2016.

As I mentioned I was chatting with the guy that bought out two of our sites post 2008 where we retained overage rights and he was pretty chirpy, he had sprung the funding to develop one of them from a bank, (£5m) however he is in his thirties I am in my fifties and have experienced more economic blows during my working life, so for instance when I cautioned slowing site works until after March he is instead going to be steaming ahead with the groundworks and hoping for the best, time will tell if this was a risk worth taking as property development is like pass the parcel; you do not want to get caught out when the music stops.


I don't claim to understand construction in the UK. Its contribution to GDP growth in recent years has gone up and down by large amounts, apparently randomly. Yet there can be no miscounting the number of housing units completed, and that tells a very bullish story of increasing number since 2012. I don't know why you should be so cautious about the Edinburgh market - I thought house prices there were still rising rapidly, while they were a little soft in London. Are you more worried about the effects of the SNP Govt on house prices, rather than anything else?

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189271

Postby Charlottesquare » December 25th, 2018, 11:29 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:I would more say they have a vested interest being upbeat re their consultancy division etc, nothing being built no fees.

I am not convinced by the projected volumes but I am generally:

a. cynical

b. really out of construction projects except very small ones- we have been hoarding cash rather than being expansionist, partly due to the advancing years of the owners making them less bullish (if you make mistakes less years left to correct)but also Brexit/Indy Ref 2 concerns, if the economy takes big hits then this time we want to be on the right side of being prepared rather than 2008 which had us off balance and led to us fighting off the banks from about 2011 through to 2016.

As I mentioned I was chatting with the guy that bought out two of our sites post 2008 where we retained overage rights and he was pretty chirpy, he had sprung the funding to develop one of them from a bank, (£5m) however he is in his thirties I am in my fifties and have experienced more economic blows during my working life, so for instance when I cautioned slowing site works until after March he is instead going to be steaming ahead with the groundworks and hoping for the best, time will tell if this was a risk worth taking as property development is like pass the parcel; you do not want to get caught out when the music stops.


I don't claim to understand construction in the UK. Its contribution to GDP growth in recent years has gone up and down by large amounts, apparently randomly. Yet there can be no miscounting the number of housing units completed, and that tells a very bullish story of increasing number since 2012. I don't know why you should be so cautious about the Edinburgh market - I thought house prices there were still rising rapidly, while they were a little soft in London. Are you more worried about the effects of the SNP Govt on house prices, rather than anything else?


I am most worried that Brexit leads to Indy Ref 2 which will freeze the Scottish economy dead in its tracks, as a bad Brexit will do re the entire UK.

Parts of Edinburgh residential market have already slowed, from what I have heard, but these I believe are not in the FTB sector, catch is housing is a ladder and if one part becomes a bit blocked with low supply that will fed down, previous FTBs then cannot move up the chain and things gum up. The LBTT rates also have something to answer, once up at the £450k-£600k mark LBTT is a really high cost- moving house involves spending a serious amount of money re frictional costs. It is why my next house move will be my last, so at 58 I do not need a house without stairs but will buy one in preparation for being 88 so I never need to move again, next house is hopefully last house.

The catch with bullish building numbers growth since 2012 is it is still catch up- if pre 2008 they were knocking up 250k units and then the number dropped then even if one gets back to building 250k units there is a shortfall, the ten years when you undershot, to catch is you now need to build say extra 50k a year over maybe 15 years to get back to where you might have been ex 2008.

If the economy was strong I might be more bullish but it is not, if it were I would have been able to push up our commercial property rents over last few years, whilst we have good occupancy, and rents have in part risen, the rises have been sub inflation, so in the tertiary market here we appear to have a fragile economy which our politicians are encouraging with some very big hammers-strike the wrong bit and it will break.

But remember, you never get glass half full from an accountant, especially a Scottish accountant.

Merry Christmas

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189315

Postby Nimrod103 » December 25th, 2018, 11:03 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
I am most worried that Brexit leads to Indy Ref 2 which will freeze the Scottish economy dead in its tracks, as a bad Brexit will do re the entire UK.

Parts of Edinburgh residential market have already slowed, from what I have heard, but these I believe are not in the FTB sector, catch is housing is a ladder and if one part becomes a bit blocked with low supply that will fed down, previous FTBs then cannot move up the chain and things gum up. The LBTT rates also have something to answer, once up at the £450k-£600k mark LBTT is a really high cost- moving house involves spending a serious amount of money re frictional costs. It is why my next house move will be my last, so at 58 I do not need a house without stairs but will buy one in preparation for being 88 so I never need to move again, next house is hopefully last house.

The catch with bullish building numbers growth since 2012 is it is still catch up- if pre 2008 they were knocking up 250k units and then the number dropped then even if one gets back to building 250k units there is a shortfall, the ten years when you undershot, to catch is you now need to build say extra 50k a year over maybe 15 years to get back to where you might have been ex 2008.

If the economy was strong I might be more bullish but it is not, if it were I would have been able to push up our commercial property rents over last few years, whilst we have good occupancy, and rents have in part risen, the rises have been sub inflation, so in the tertiary market here we appear to have a fragile economy which our politicians are encouraging with some very big hammers-strike the wrong bit and it will break.

But remember, you never get glass half full from an accountant, especially a Scottish accountant.

Merry Christmas


Surely Scots realize that independence from their biggest market and financial provider (England) would be suicidal. I have said before, but reiterate, the only way an independent Scotland could exist, is if it can get its subsidy directly from Brussels, and that ain't gonna happen. It might have happened if the UK had stayed in the EU and become Balkanized according to what I believe was the grand EU plan, but it won't happen now. I believe that is the main reason why the SNP is so upset with Brexit.

I would have thought 250,000 housing units/year is a very healthy number. Maybe the downturn in building 2008-12 was the reason for the upsurge in prices post 2012 - I don't know. But there is a problem with too many flats, not enough small houses, and all they build are below Parker Morris standards, and the smallest in Europe. There is also the crazy situation of too much demand in London and SE, while much of the building is further north.

Do you not think the economy is doing well overall? There is a significant issue with retail rents at present, but that is due to the internet, not Brexit. The situation could be helped if we had a real Conservative Govt in all parts of the UK dedicated to lowering taxes all around. But we don't. Since the demise of Thatcher unneccessary spending has proliferated. We could start with the useless devolved parliaments, and bloated HoL and HoC.

And a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189359

Postby Charlottesquare » December 26th, 2018, 3:22 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
I am most worried that Brexit leads to Indy Ref 2 which will freeze the Scottish economy dead in its tracks, as a bad Brexit will do re the entire UK.

Parts of Edinburgh residential market have already slowed, from what I have heard, but these I believe are not in the FTB sector, catch is housing is a ladder and if one part becomes a bit blocked with low supply that will fed down, previous FTBs then cannot move up the chain and things gum up. The LBTT rates also have something to answer, once up at the £450k-£600k mark LBTT is a really high cost- moving house involves spending a serious amount of money re frictional costs. It is why my next house move will be my last, so at 58 I do not need a house without stairs but will buy one in preparation for being 88 so I never need to move again, next house is hopefully last house.

The catch with bullish building numbers growth since 2012 is it is still catch up- if pre 2008 they were knocking up 250k units and then the number dropped then even if one gets back to building 250k units there is a shortfall, the ten years when you undershot, to catch is you now need to build say extra 50k a year over maybe 15 years to get back to where you might have been ex 2008.

If the economy was strong I might be more bullish but it is not, if it were I would have been able to push up our commercial property rents over last few years, whilst we have good occupancy, and rents have in part risen, the rises have been sub inflation, so in the tertiary market here we appear to have a fragile economy which our politicians are encouraging with some very big hammers-strike the wrong bit and it will break.

But remember, you never get glass half full from an accountant, especially a Scottish accountant.

Merry Christmas


Surely Scots realize that independence from their biggest market and financial provider (England) would be suicidal. I have said before, but reiterate, the only way an independent Scotland could exist, is if it can get its subsidy directly from Brussels, and that ain't gonna happen. It might have happened if the UK had stayed in the EU and become Balkanized according to what I believe was the grand EU plan, but it won't happen now. I believe that is the main reason why the SNP is so upset with Brexit.

I would have thought 250,000 housing units/year is a very healthy number. Maybe the downturn in building 2008-12 was the reason for the upsurge in prices post 2012 - I don't know. But there is a problem with too many flats, not enough small houses, and all they build are below Parker Morris standards, and the smallest in Europe. There is also the crazy situation of too much demand in London and SE, while much of the building is further north.

Do you not think the economy is doing well overall? There is a significant issue with retail rents at present, but that is due to the internet, not Brexit. The situation could be helped if we had a real Conservative Govt in all parts of the UK dedicated to lowering taxes all around. But we don't. Since the demise of Thatcher unneccessary spending has proliferated. We could start with the useless devolved parliaments, and bloated HoL and HoC.

And a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.


Re the economy I think it is currently fragile rather than robust, we had a closure in Livingston in run up to Christmas,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 98621.html

I expect more of the same if Brexit is a shambles (albeit Kaiam as far as I know has no Brexit connection)

You do not need to sell me on the economic mess that would be a Scotland with trade barriers with the rUK, but as we have seen with the Brexit debate economic self interest can lose out to other factors when rational economic thought leaves discussions, in the shorter term (up to 20 years)there is no logical construct that has Brexit as improving our financial well being as a country, there is no economic construct that has Scottish Independence doing similar, there is also no cause for optimism that neither will happen given we are one down (in theory) with one to go.

Re house sizes maybe we should adopt the European idea of giving asking price plus asking price per sq metre (or sq ft)

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189435

Postby Nimrod103 » December 27th, 2018, 9:01 am

Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
I am most worried that Brexit leads to Indy Ref 2 which will freeze the Scottish economy dead in its tracks, as a bad Brexit will do re the entire UK.

Parts of Edinburgh residential market have already slowed, from what I have heard, but these I believe are not in the FTB sector, catch is housing is a ladder and if one part becomes a bit blocked with low supply that will fed down, previous FTBs then cannot move up the chain and things gum up. The LBTT rates also have something to answer, once up at the £450k-£600k mark LBTT is a really high cost- moving house involves spending a serious amount of money re frictional costs. It is why my next house move will be my last, so at 58 I do not need a house without stairs but will buy one in preparation for being 88 so I never need to move again, next house is hopefully last house.

The catch with bullish building numbers growth since 2012 is it is still catch up- if pre 2008 they were knocking up 250k units and then the number dropped then even if one gets back to building 250k units there is a shortfall, the ten years when you undershot, to catch is you now need to build say extra 50k a year over maybe 15 years to get back to where you might have been ex 2008.

If the economy was strong I might be more bullish but it is not, if it were I would have been able to push up our commercial property rents over last few years, whilst we have good occupancy, and rents have in part risen, the rises have been sub inflation, so in the tertiary market here we appear to have a fragile economy which our politicians are encouraging with some very big hammers-strike the wrong bit and it will break.

But remember, you never get glass half full from an accountant, especially a Scottish accountant.

Merry Christmas


Surely Scots realize that independence from their biggest market and financial provider (England) would be suicidal. I have said before, but reiterate, the only way an independent Scotland could exist, is if it can get its subsidy directly from Brussels, and that ain't gonna happen. It might have happened if the UK had stayed in the EU and become Balkanized according to what I believe was the grand EU plan, but it won't happen now. I believe that is the main reason why the SNP is so upset with Brexit.

I would have thought 250,000 housing units/year is a very healthy number. Maybe the downturn in building 2008-12 was the reason for the upsurge in prices post 2012 - I don't know. But there is a problem with too many flats, not enough small houses, and all they build are below Parker Morris standards, and the smallest in Europe. There is also the crazy situation of too much demand in London and SE, while much of the building is further north.

Do you not think the economy is doing well overall? There is a significant issue with retail rents at present, but that is due to the internet, not Brexit. The situation could be helped if we had a real Conservative Govt in all parts of the UK dedicated to lowering taxes all around. But we don't. Since the demise of Thatcher unneccessary spending has proliferated. We could start with the useless devolved parliaments, and bloated HoL and HoC.

And a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.


Re the economy I think it is currently fragile rather than robust, we had a closure in Livingston in run up to Christmas,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 98621.html

I expect more of the same if Brexit is a shambles (albeit Kaiam as far as I know has no Brexit connection)

You do not need to sell me on the economic mess that would be a Scotland with trade barriers with the rUK, but as we have seen with the Brexit debate economic self interest can lose out to other factors when rational economic thought leaves discussions, in the shorter term (up to 20 years)there is no logical construct that has Brexit as improving our financial well being as a country, there is no economic construct that has Scottish Independence doing similar, there is also no cause for optimism that neither will happen given we are one down (in theory) with one to go.

Re house sizes maybe we should adopt the European idea of giving asking price plus asking price per sq metre (or sq ft)


What do you make of headlines like this from today's Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/ho ... ice-slump/

Are you perhaps in danger of missing the boat?
I have to say AIUI the ripple of house prices out from London and the SE is a phenomena well established over many property price cycles, and totally inexplicable.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189488

Postby Charlottesquare » December 27th, 2018, 1:51 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Surely Scots realize that independence from their biggest market and financial provider (England) would be suicidal. I have said before, but reiterate, the only way an independent Scotland could exist, is if it can get its subsidy directly from Brussels, and that ain't gonna happen. It might have happened if the UK had stayed in the EU and become Balkanized according to what I believe was the grand EU plan, but it won't happen now. I believe that is the main reason why the SNP is so upset with Brexit.

I would have thought 250,000 housing units/year is a very healthy number. Maybe the downturn in building 2008-12 was the reason for the upsurge in prices post 2012 - I don't know. But there is a problem with too many flats, not enough small houses, and all they build are below Parker Morris standards, and the smallest in Europe. There is also the crazy situation of too much demand in London and SE, while much of the building is further north.

Do you not think the economy is doing well overall? There is a significant issue with retail rents at present, but that is due to the internet, not Brexit. The situation could be helped if we had a real Conservative Govt in all parts of the UK dedicated to lowering taxes all around. But we don't. Since the demise of Thatcher unneccessary spending has proliferated. We could start with the useless devolved parliaments, and bloated HoL and HoC.

And a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.


Re the economy I think it is currently fragile rather than robust, we had a closure in Livingston in run up to Christmas,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 98621.html

I expect more of the same if Brexit is a shambles (albeit Kaiam as far as I know has no Brexit connection)

You do not need to sell me on the economic mess that would be a Scotland with trade barriers with the rUK, but as we have seen with the Brexit debate economic self interest can lose out to other factors when rational economic thought leaves discussions, in the shorter term (up to 20 years)there is no logical construct that has Brexit as improving our financial well being as a country, there is no economic construct that has Scottish Independence doing similar, there is also no cause for optimism that neither will happen given we are one down (in theory) with one to go.

Re house sizes maybe we should adopt the European idea of giving asking price plus asking price per sq metre (or sq ft)


What do you make of headlines like this from today's Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/ho ... ice-slump/

Are you perhaps in danger of missing the boat?
I have to say AIUI the ripple of house prices out from London and the SE is a phenomena well established over many property price cycles, and totally inexplicable.


I would say I would want to see the detail. Parts of the market I am sure are doing well, parts are not, in fact some frankly are not selling so do not even make the stats.

We are Edinburgh based, next house could well be South of Edinburgh down West Linton/Peebles way, as I only work a three day week commuting would not be that bad and other half works in a South Edinburgh school, so travelling in not that long a journey. A fair few houses down there are just not selling and have price reductions, I have been keeping my eye on them on Rightmove for last 18 months in case something I really want comes up for sale

I think you have a fractured market up here, starter homes doing well, am sure say Edinburgh New Town is doing fine (it always does) but other parts of the market are certainly not rising, the Telegraph article needs to split out the detail to see where these rises are arising rather than blanket apply their conclusion to the whole Scottish market, because it is just not accurate applied that way.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189643

Postby Lanark » December 28th, 2018, 9:26 am

Spet0789 wrote:Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit.


and the credit offered is proportional to interest rates.

Why anyone thinks this is the fault of an increase in the population is something that can be laid squarely at the feet of our gutter press.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189648

Postby JamesMuenchen » December 28th, 2018, 9:56 am

Lanark wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit.


and the credit offered is proportional to interest rates.

Why anyone thinks this is the fault of an increase in the population is something that can be laid squarely at the feet of our gutter press.

Except interest rates don't vary by area and property prices do. Places where more people want to live are more expensive.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189656

Postby Stonge » December 28th, 2018, 10:47 am

modellingman wrote:This will be the increasing numbers of older people.

Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.



Where did they live before they were 65, in a bucket?

I was talking to E Cogg-Willoughby yesterday. He said if you want old people to downsize, abolish SDLT for the over 60s.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189848

Postby JonE » December 28th, 2018, 10:05 pm

Stonge wrote:I was talking to E Cogg-Willoughby yesterday. He said if you want old people to downsize, abolish SDLT for the over 60s.


Yes, but not in the South.

Placid salutations!

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#191956

Postby paulnumbers » January 8th, 2019, 2:55 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
paulnumbers wrote:
Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.

Dod


My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.

I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.


Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.

In our case, the failure to reform planning laws, improve transport links and foster economic activity outside London and the South East. Not sure how Brexit will help, especially given that the main restriction on housebuilding is a shortage of skilled labour.


I didn't blame immigrants, I saw a solution to my problem that the government was failing to deal with, and I took it, and it worked. Remain repeatedly told us that voting to leave the EU would crash the housing market. To a certain extent, in London, they were right.

I'm now a home owner, I wouldn't be if remain had won the vote.


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