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M&M's portfolio review December 2018

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Clitheroekid
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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192028

Postby Clitheroekid » January 8th, 2019, 8:58 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:I'm annoyed that I was away over Christmas / New Year, and missed the chance to pick it up at around £41, but I finally took the plunge today at £44.89. Although I'm quite happy to take a profit given the opportunity, with a yield of around 3.6% I'm also happy to stay in for the long term.

Hmm, that was fortuitous timing. If I'd known it had moved up to over £48 today I might well have taken the quick profit on offer, but I didn't look at the price until this evening.

I expect it'll drift back a bit tomorrow, so the dilemma is whether or not to get a quick sale in the morning if the price holds or to accept the probable fall (which I wouldn't expect to be much below £47) and hang on for further rises.

I do see a significant amount of upside for NXT, but I'm increasingly nervous about the market generally, and as we've seen recently good companies can get taken down with the rest. Hence, my instinct at times like these is to trade rather than invest.

As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times".

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192085

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 9th, 2019, 6:00 am

Clitheroekid wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:I'm annoyed that I was away over Christmas / New Year, and missed the chance to pick it up at around £41, but I finally took the plunge today at £44.89. Although I'm quite happy to take a profit given the opportunity, with a yield of around 3.6% I'm also happy to stay in for the long term.

Hmm, that was fortuitous timing. If I'd known it had moved up to over £48 today I might well have taken the quick profit on offer, but I didn't look at the price until this evening.

I expect it'll drift back a bit tomorrow, so the dilemma is whether or not to get a quick sale in the morning if the price holds or to accept the probable fall (which I wouldn't expect to be much below £47) and hang on for further rises.

I do see a significant amount of upside for NXT, but I'm increasingly nervous about the market generally, and as we've seen recently good companies can get taken down with the rest. Hence, my instinct at times like these is to trade rather than invest.

As the old Chinese curse says, "May you live in interesting times".

Please sell them now Clitheroekid and tell your friends to sell theirs! I want to buy me some more.....

Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192090

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 9th, 2019, 7:23 am

I don't particularly regret Mel and I's indulgence in bond purchasing. No it wasn't at the best of times, but there's no point selling any of the short term ones since they still yield at a rate in excess of the 2.5% inflation. The bond part of our portfolio now only represents about 17% of the total, and this percentage, I assume, will continue to diminish as we invest further into equities.

We (Mel and I) have certainly learnt some over the past few months especially about holding equities. I would rather we bought these, but definitely consider buying bonds when equities become very expensive and bonds seem to be a better place for my savings.

FWIW I had heard that Warren Buffet keeps Treasury Bills (short term fixed income instruments) in place of cash, when he can't find equity at the right price, and Benjamin Graham (WBs mentor) in his book "The Intelligent Investor" if I recall correctly, seems to advocate investment in either just depending on their relevant value - though I appreciate he was writing in times, decades in the past.

Out of interest:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/busi ... r-you.html

Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192415

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2019, 2:24 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I don't particularly regret Mel and I's indulgence in bond purchasing. No it wasn't at the best of times, but there's no point selling any of the short term ones since they still yield at a rate in excess of the 2.5% inflation. The bond part of our portfolio now only represents about 17% of the total, and this percentage, I assume, will continue to diminish as we invest further into equities.

No-one (least not me) is saying that you have timed buying bonds wrong. How would I know what the future holds for inflation and interest rates other than that in all likelihood the only way is up for both, and both are very bad for fixed income investments? I am more concerned as to the reason why you bought them in the first place at the grand old age of 50 and change? Of course, I have no idea what your financial circumstances are, or what your end goal is for your portfolio, but as you have found out in falling markets bond prices fall along with everything else, and if you want to get out they are not the most liquid investments available with often hideous bid-offer spreads.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:FWIW I had heard that Warren Buffet keeps Treasury Bills (short term fixed income instruments) in place of cash, when he can't find equity at the right price, and Benjamin Graham (WBs mentor) in his book "The Intelligent Investor" if I recall correctly, seems to advocate investment in either just depending on their relevant value - though I appreciate he was writing in times, decades in the past.

Out of interest:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/busi ... r-you.html

Matt

Yes, but you don't need to hold bonds if you want to reduce volatility in your portfolio. I'd much rather hold cash in that scenario, but of course, that is not an option for many professional investors.

All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192420

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2019, 2:36 pm

simoan wrote:I am more concerned as to the reason why you bought them in the first place at the grand old age of 50 and change?

Lack of experience/knowledge at the time of purchase...........oh, and by the way, 50 is not old, and besides I'm a very young 50 year old!! :lol:

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192426

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2019, 2:56 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
simoan wrote:I am more concerned as to the reason why you bought them in the first place at the grand old age of 50 and change?

Lack of experience/knowledge at the time of purchase...........oh, and by the way, 50 is not old, and besides I'm a very young 50 year old!! :lol:

I was mainly concerned that you may have been unduly influenced by posters on here who are probably in their 60's or 70's. You need to bear in mind that everyone talks their own shop. BTW my reference to "grand old age of 50" was meant as a joke; 50 is still young and not an age where you need to hold any bonds in your personal portfolio because you probably have third party pension funds that hold more than enough on your behalf - that is my main point.

The real trouble is if you want to sell the bonds during a real market downturn, maybe as prices fall caused by rising inflation/interest rates. You will find that liquidity dries up and you may not be able to sell at any price.

All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192480

Postby tjh290633 » January 10th, 2019, 4:46 pm

simoan wrote:I was mainly concerned that you may have been unduly influenced by posters on here who are probably in their 60's or 70's.

Some of us are in our 80s. "Young" 80s, of course.

TJH

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192487

Postby simoan » January 10th, 2019, 5:00 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
simoan wrote:I was mainly concerned that you may have been unduly influenced by posters on here who are probably in their 60's or 70's.

Some of us are in our 80s. "Young" 80s, of course.

TJH

Yes, I'm aware that like the OP I am very likely much younger than the average poster on LF. It's important to understand that and how that may affect the investment outlook of each poster. As for 80 being young, yes it is these days. I sometimes go out with a walking group that does 12-15 miles and there are a few regulars who are nearly 84. I will be happy to make it to that age, let alone be as fit in mind and body as they are :-).
All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192490

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » January 10th, 2019, 5:06 pm

simoan wrote:BTW my reference to "grand old age of 50" was meant as a joke;

Dude.....you take me far too seriously!!! :D

simoan wrote:The real trouble is if you want to sell the bonds during a real market downturn, maybe as prices fall caused by rising inflation/interest rates. You will find that liquidity dries up and you may not be able to sell at any price.

I'm really not that bothered! We've bought them now! The only thing that will p!ss us off, is if the firms themselves go bust...which could happen of course...

tjh290633 wrote:
simoan wrote:I was mainly concerned that you may have been unduly influenced by posters on here who are probably in their 60's or 70's.

Some of us are in our 80s. "Young" 80s, of course.

TJH

Now that's more like it!! I guess the numbers after tjh kinda give it away....

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#192501

Postby tjh290633 » January 10th, 2019, 5:37 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Now that's more like it!! I guess the numbers after tjh kinda give it away....

They do, approximately.

TJH

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#199779

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » February 8th, 2019, 6:22 am

simoan wrote:Matt & Mel,

It looks a nice portfolio with some quality companies. I don't really have much to say on your equity holdings other than I own some of them myself - BUR, BVXP, GAW, TRI, TATE, DGE, NXT etc....

Apologies for the very late reply to this post, Si. But what is your rationale for your holdings in Trifast (TRI) and TATE? I'm not being critical, as we have them too, but I didn't realise firms were your kind of thing.

Just curious,

Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#199845

Postby simoan » February 8th, 2019, 10:46 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
simoan wrote:Apologies for the very late reply to this post, Si. But what is your rationale for your holdings in Trifast (TRI) and TATE? I'm not being critical, as we have them too, but I didn't realise firms were your kind of thing.

Just curious,

Matt

Sorry Matt, you must have me down as someone that holds lots of funds and IT's - I don't. I only hold Fundsmith Equity, Smithson and Finsbury Growth & Income, plus currently some cash that was parked in the IUKD ETF in November.

I'm not a trader and so normally hold companies I like for a long time unless there is a very obvious reason to sell. I can still remember buying some TRI when they were around 10p about 10 years ago and my average price is about 40p. I still hold because it's a very well managed company and the fundamentals are good. TATE is just generating some income in the defensive section of my portfolio, not a holding I have a lot of conviction about one way or the other i.e. I wouldn't hold it if my portfolio was smaller but I have no great conviction to sell.

All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#200000

Postby tjh290633 » February 8th, 2019, 5:58 pm

Regarding TATE, I chose them when I had to set up an ISA paralllel to my PEP, in 1999. To get the holding value up to the average of the PEP, I had to top up in each of the 3 successive years, the initial purchase being at 392p with a yield of 5.5%. The top ups were at 269p, 247p and 352p, giving an average cost of 306p.

In October 2002 they had gone overweight so I sold 25% at 361p, only to buy back in a year later at 348p. Trimmed back twice in 2006, as the price rose to 596p and 812p. Added again in 2007 at 560p and again in 2009 at 300p. Trimmed back again in 2011 by a third at 647p, then addded more in 2014 at 697p and again in 2017n at 517p.

Current yield at 693p is 4.2%. Overall my IRR is 13.0%. Like most shares they have their ups and downs. The dividend has been held level at problematic times but never reduced. From an initial 17.8p after a change in year end, it is now 28.9p from the last two dividends.

It has weathered a few storms and stayed a good payer through thick and thin.

TJH

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#200001

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » February 8th, 2019, 6:02 pm

simoan wrote:Sorry Matt, you must have me down as someone that holds lots of funds and IT's - I don't. I only hold Fundsmith Equity, Smithson and Finsbury Growth & Income, plus currently some cash that was parked in the IUKD ETF in November.

No worries - I kinda always thought that you were more of standalone equity player, TBF.

simoan wrote:I'm not a trader and so normally hold companies I like for a long time unless there is a very obvious reason to sell. I can still remember buying some TRI when they were around 10p about 10 years ago and my average price is about 40p. I still hold because it's a very well managed company and the fundamentals are good.

A ha. That explains it. A small much earlier holding. I now maintain that when me and Mel bought TRI earlier last year, we bought it a bit pricey. We were trying to "diversify" and as you point out, they do have good fundamentals. (We are definitely holding it however!!). However I guess that making nuts and bolts is not really a "moat" style business, so it was, perhaps, a slightly misconceived purchase. Perhaps not one to top up above and beyond some of our others. But you live and learn, I guess.

simoan wrote:TATE is just generating some income in the defensive section of my portfolio, not a holding I have a lot of conviction about one way or the other i.e. I wouldn't hold it if my portfolio was smaller but I have no great conviction to sell.

Yes, that's how we are viewing our TATE holding.

Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#218518

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » April 30th, 2019, 6:30 pm

Hi Si,

Sorry, I hope you don't mind me digging this one out again!

simoan wrote:I don't really see the point of bonds unless you're retired and need the certainty of income. So what are you trying to achieve by holding bonds? My understanding is that both of you are working and some way from "celebrating" your 50th birthdays? So why do you need the income?


Well, first off, you'll probably be pleased to hear that we did sell off 2k of our bonds a couple of months ago. They were undated ones, probably a mistake on our part... Anyway, amazingly with the accrued interest and coupon received, we only lost about £8 in value. Then we used the reclaimed capital to go toward acquiring more shares (Renishaw and Victrex IIRC).

But what I wanted to ask you is what do you do when the UK equity markets are looking expensive? Do you still not consider bonds, which could, maybe earn some useful interest while the yields on shares are lower? Or just stay in cash? Or not try to "time the market", and continue buying equity but try to be more cautious? etc. etc.

The reason I'm thinking such things, and why I wanted to pose the question to you (and anyone else), is because it's now been just over a year that me and Mel have been investing, and so we've witnessed some, admittedly quite small in historic terms, market movements. From March 2018 to May 2018, the FTSE100 moved from about 7000 to 7800ish, then slowly descended to about 6500ish in December. From that point on it is slowly rising again. Over this time period our investing went like this, basically we were fairly gung-ho from March to September, and with only Mel's ISA and a fair lump of cash savings to burn, we had almost run out of the ISA allowance by September. We then watched from September to November most of the shares we'd bought in this admittedly gung-ho fashion gradually fall in value.

It wasn't until November that I got news of a decent bonus and decided (since the FTSEs were looking very cheap, by M&M standards!) to open a separate ISA in my name. And I basically piled in from then until February, when I started to slow down, mainly since I like to have some "rainy day" cash.

So now, as the FTSEs is rising again quite a few of the shares we bought "in the dip" e.g. DGE, GAW, SPX, BXVP are looking very pricey. So each month i.e. after pay day, it looks harder to buy really good firms at reasonable prices. Yes, I appreciate that does "stand to reason". So since I'm trying to a little more shrewd than our gung-ho first year, I'm wondering on the sensible course of action for investing if the market continues to rise.

Sorry to waffle on a bit. Interested on what your actions are "when equity gets pricier".
thanks Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#218594

Postby simoan » April 30th, 2019, 11:18 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Hi Si,

Sorry, I hope you don't mind me digging this one out again!

simoan wrote:I don't really see the point of bonds unless you're retired and need the certainty of income. So what are you trying to achieve by holding bonds? My understanding is that both of you are working and some way from "celebrating" your 50th birthdays? So why do you need the income?


Well, first off, you'll probably be pleased to hear that we did sell off 2k of our bonds a couple of months ago. They were undated ones, probably a mistake on our part... Anyway, amazingly with the accrued interest and coupon received, we only lost about £8 in value. Then we used the reclaimed capital to go toward acquiring more shares (Renishaw and Victrex IIRC).

Well, I was only really asking you a question, it wasn't intended as any kind of advice, so I'm neither pleased nor displeased by your action. However, if you don't know why you hold something, or realise you made a mistake, then selling an investment is probably a reasonable response. And when you say you only lost £8, did you really? If you had the same amount invested in equities over the same period you would likely have made money, not lost - that's called an opportunity cost. You need to consider the time value of money...

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:But what I wanted to ask you is what do you do when the UK equity markets are looking expensive? Do you still not consider bonds, which could, maybe earn some useful interest while the yields on shares are lower? Or just stay in cash? Or not try to "time the market", and continue buying equity but try to be more cautious? etc. etc.


I never hold bonds, unless you classify bank and insurance company preference shares as "bonds". I still hold some prefs but they are historic holdings bought at less than half current price in the midst of the GFC, so a special situation. Tbh you're asking lots of questions to which I don't really have an answer. Everyone has to do what is right for them both psychologically and financially but trying to time the market is for the lunatic fringe. I'd much rather hold cash than bonds, but you'd need to understand my circumstances to understand why that works best for me. As for valuation, I don't really believe the UK market looks expensive but then it has many lower quality old world industry companies, and so should probably be at a discount to the US market, for instance. If you feel cautious maybe drip money into the market over time, buy the dips etc. or maybe even diversify by increasing the number of holdings in your portfolio.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:So now, as the FTSEs is rising again quite a few of the shares we bought "in the dip" e.g. DGE, GAW, SPX, BXVP are looking very pricey. So each month i.e. after pay day, it looks harder to buy really good firms at reasonable prices. Yes, I appreciate that does "stand to reason". So since I'm trying to a little more shrewd than our gung-ho first year, I'm wondering on the sensible course of action for investing if the market continues to rise.

Well, you bought some very high quality companies. I own three of them and agree on some traditional metrics they look expensive... currently. However, quality companies always look expensive. I personally have no intention of selling them and would welcome lower prices to buy some more. It all depends what your timescale is, whether you're a trader or an investor etc.? I am happy to hold quality companies indefinitely and let the natural compounding of their high Returns on Capital take it's natural course.

All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#218614

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 1st, 2019, 7:11 am

Si,

simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Hi Si,

Sorry, I hope you don't mind me digging this one out again!

simoan wrote:I don't really see the point of bonds unless you're retired and need the certainty of income. So what are you trying to achieve by holding bonds? My understanding is that both of you are working and some way from "celebrating" your 50th birthdays? So why do you need the income?


Well, first off, you'll probably be pleased to hear that we did sell off 2k of our bonds a couple of months ago. They were undated ones, probably a mistake on our part... Anyway, amazingly with the accrued interest and coupon received, we only lost about £8 in value. Then we used the reclaimed capital to go toward acquiring more shares (Renishaw and Victrex IIRC).

Well, I was only really asking you a question, it wasn't intended as any kind of advice, so I'm neither pleased nor displeased by your action. However, if you don't know why you hold something, or realise you made a mistake, then selling an investment is probably a reasonable response. And when you say you only lost £8, did you really? If you had the same amount invested in equities over the same period you would likely have made money, not lost - that's called an opportunity cost. You need to consider the time value of money...

Thanks for responding. Yes you are quite correct the £8 lost completely skirts the opportunity cost. You are quite right.

simoan wrote:As for valuation, I don't really believe the UK market looks expensive but then it has many lower quality old world industry companies, and so should probably be at a discount to the US market, for instance. If you feel cautious maybe drip money into the market over time, buy the dips etc. or maybe even diversify by increasing the number of holdings in your portfolio.

Yes, I agree the UK market on the whole is probably still fairly inexpensive. I suppose what I need to do is just slow down until we are next in an obvious dip. I'm also thinking that when I get to a pay-day or a time where I wish buy more and all the quality firms in our portfolio look very expensive, we should perhaps top up our World Equity Index Tracker fund.

This is definitely, what I'm currently finding the difficult part of long term investing and that's continuing to buy quality and not get too easily seduced by an illusion of value, i.e. just buying something "because it looks cheap".

Thanks for your advice,
Matt

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#218627

Postby simoan » May 1st, 2019, 8:07 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Yes, I agree the UK market on the whole is probably still fairly inexpensive. I suppose what I need to do is just slow down until we are next in an obvious dip. I'm also thinking that when I get to a pay-day or a time where I wish buy more and all the quality firms in our portfolio look very expensive, we should perhaps top up our World Equity Index Tracker fund.

This is definitely, what I'm currently finding the difficult part of long term investing and that's continuing to buy quality and not get too easily seduced by an illusion of value, i.e. just buying something "because it looks cheap".

Tbh I'm not really interested in "the market" so I rarely discuss it. Apart from anything else I don't want to track it, otherwise what's the point? I'm looking for individual companies, mostly quality small and mid caps, that will help me comfortably outperform it over time, not necessarily in the short term. This is not as difficult as some people would have you believe as long as you are disciplined and have a process, and by that I do not mean regular trading. Very often the best decision is just to do nothing.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Thanks for your advice,
Matt

This is just my opinion. It is categoricaly not advice!

All the best, Si

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Re: M&M's portfolio review December 2018

#218697

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 1st, 2019, 12:09 pm

simoan wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Yes, I agree the UK market on the whole is probably still fairly inexpensive. I suppose what I need to do is just slow down until we are next in an obvious dip. I'm also thinking that when I get to a pay-day or a time where I wish buy more and all the quality firms in our portfolio look very expensive, we should perhaps top up our World Equity Index Tracker fund.

This is definitely, what I'm currently finding the difficult part of long term investing and that's continuing to buy quality and not get too easily seduced by an illusion of value, i.e. just buying something "because it looks cheap".

Tbh I'm not really interested in "the market" so I rarely discuss it. Apart from anything else I don't want to track it, otherwise what's the point? I'm looking for individual companies, mostly quality small and mid caps, that will help me comfortably outperform it over time, not necessarily in the short term. This is not as difficult as some people would have you believe as long as you are disciplined and have a process, and by that I do not mean regular trading. Very often the best decision is just to do nothing.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Thanks for your advice,
Matt

This is just my opinion. It is categoricaly not advice!

All the best, Si

Thanks again, interesting stuff.


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