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Meaningful Vote - Poll

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What will be the winning or losing margin of the Meaningful Vote?

Poll ended at January 15th, 2019, 8:53 pm

Lose by 250+
1
2%
Lose by 200-249
4
7%
Lose by 150-199
8
15%
Lose by 100-149
17
31%
Lose by 50-99
16
30%
Lose by 1-49
4
7%
Dead Heat - Bercow will decide
0
No votes
Win by 1-49
2
4%
Win by 50-99
1
2%
Win by 100+
1
2%
 
Total votes: 54

moorfield
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Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193301

Postby moorfield » January 13th, 2019, 8:53 pm

Come on then let's have some fun and have a poll.
How much is Theresa going to win or lose the Meaningful Vote by?

Charlottesquare
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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193312

Postby Charlottesquare » January 13th, 2019, 10:02 pm

Given recent discussions on here do we not need to determine the method of counting the margin of victory?

I voted 150-199 on the basis that this number is the difference between the number for and the number against, not the number over or under the halfway total number of votes casts or any other convoluted method of calculation.

I would firmly advise not trying, after the event, to calculate the percentage majority- opening that can of worms on here is dangerous. :D

moorfield
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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193318

Postby moorfield » January 13th, 2019, 10:37 pm

Charlottesquare wrote: I voted 150-199 on the basis that this number is the difference between the number for and the number against,


Yes thats how I see it. For minus Against.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193323

Postby ursaminortaur » January 13th, 2019, 11:36 pm

moorfield wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote: I voted 150-199 on the basis that this number is the difference between the number for and the number against,


Yes thats how I see it. For minus Against.


Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193327

Postby Charlottesquare » January 13th, 2019, 11:51 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote: I voted 150-199 on the basis that this number is the difference between the number for and the number against,


Yes thats how I see it. For minus Against.


Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.


Why should they, all soundings and unofficial polls have her losing, then again maybe it is all a cunning plan to earn a fortune from the bookies- win £39bn say.

ursaminortaur
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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193330

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 12:04 am

Charlottesquare wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
moorfield wrote:
Yes thats how I see it. For minus Against.


Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.


Why should they, all soundings and unofficial polls have her losing, then again maybe it is all a cunning plan to earn a fortune from the bookies- win £39bn say.


Well, since I posted we now have one person voting for her winning by 50-99.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193332

Postby Charlottesquare » January 14th, 2019, 12:31 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.


Why should they, all soundings and unofficial polls have her losing, then again maybe it is all a cunning plan to earn a fortune from the bookies- win £39bn say.


Well, since I posted we now have one person voting for her winning by 50-99.


That's a fair few Labour MPs, or maybe she has turned the Nats (Indy Ref 2 being her price, perhaps). Would a hefty £39bn danegeld buy back the DUP, but would need more than them to swing it?

It could, of course, have come from the same school of thought that gave us "easiest deal ever", or maybe it is the more subtle, May votes against her own deal and hence wins by that margin.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193365

Postby tjh290633 » January 14th, 2019, 9:28 am

ursaminortaur wrote:Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.

At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

TJH

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193375

Postby Sundance13 » January 14th, 2019, 10:08 am

ursaminortaur wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.


Why should they, all soundings and unofficial polls have her losing, then again maybe it is all a cunning plan to earn a fortune from the bookies- win £39bn say.


Well, since I posted we now have one person voting for her winning by 50-99.



Must be a mistake surely?

I’ve gone for 100-149 defeat. I can’t from either a remain or leaver perspective see much rationale to vote for the deal if you don’t like it currently. Better to wait and see what the EU do or don’t comeback with, also for no deal supporters to see if Parliament is getting close to a majority consensus for a Plan B.

They can always vote for Mays deal when it comes back again (which it almost certainly will).

I do think some will panic over ‘no Brexit’ being a possibility though, so don’t think we’ll see the 200+ defeat we’d likely have seen back in Dec.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193384

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 10:45 am

tjh290633 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.

At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

TJH


True, but I thought there might be a few posters on this board who supported brexit but thought nodeal would be a disaster and like the Tory "Loyalist" MPs thought May with possibly a bone of some sort thrown by the EU at the last minute might just get her vote over the line.

We now though appear to have one vote for each of the winning options from winning by one vote through 50+ and 100+ wins.
Scraping through by 1 or two votes I'd have though a few might have considered a possibility but winning by 100+ would be a colossal turnaround.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193385

Postby Snorvey » January 14th, 2019, 10:51 am

I voted for lose by 200.

Just because I'd like to see it happen.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193386

Postby moorfield » January 14th, 2019, 10:51 am

I couldn't resist putting the "Dead Heat" option in :mrgreen: ,

and shudder to think about having the casting vote in the hands of Mr Speaker - his pomposity and general oikiness would become unbearable I think.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193398

Postby gryffron » January 14th, 2019, 11:13 am

tjh290633 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.
At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193428

Postby Charlottesquare » January 14th, 2019, 12:31 pm

gryffron wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.
At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff


If FIFA introduced a back to the streets football tournament, playing with an old tin can, a UK team would win; we are the world's best can kickers.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193437

Postby Quint » January 14th, 2019, 12:48 pm

moorfield wrote:I couldn't resist putting the "Dead Heat" option in :mrgreen: ,

and shudder to think about having the casting vote in the hands of Mr Speaker - his pomposity and general oikiness would become unbearable I think.

I just hope the speaker is not the one counting the votes.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193441

Postby Quint » January 14th, 2019, 12:54 pm

gryffron wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:Interesting that even though there are vocal brexit supporters on this board noone so far thinks that she will win even by a narrow margin.

You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.
At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff

Exactly, come the end of 2020 we would be told that they have been unable to come to a trade agreement so we carry on for another year, then 2022 we have a general election, then more negotiations etc etc or they come back with a trade deal and Labour vote it down, just because they can.

Let's get real, once the EU know we will not leave without a deal, why would they offer us a good one.

ursaminortaur
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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193443

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 1:07 pm

Quint wrote:
gryffron wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.
At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff

Exactly, come the end of 2020 we would be told that they have been unable to come to a trade agreement so we carry on for another year, then 2022 we have a general election, then more negotiations etc etc or they come back with a trade deal and Labour vote it down, just because they can.

Let's get real, once the EU know we will not leave without a deal, why would they offer us a good one.


Threatening to shoot yourself in the head is seldom a good negotiating strategy - at most it may get you a few soothing words whilst your opposite number calls the men in white coats.

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193447

Postby SteMiS » January 14th, 2019, 1:33 pm

Quint wrote:
gryffron wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:You forget that many brexiteers regard May's Withdrawal Agreement as a travesty.
At a minimum, the Protocol on Northern Ireland must be removed, and there are a number of other points that are not acceptable.

Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff

Exactly, come the end of 2020 we would be told that they have been unable to come to a trade agreement so we carry on for another year, then 2022 we have a general election, then more negotiations etc etc or they come back with a trade deal and Labour vote it down, just because they can.

Let's get real, once the EU know we will not leave without a deal, why would they offer us a good one.

A deal better than the one we've got?

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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193455

Postby Ashfordian » January 14th, 2019, 2:17 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Quint wrote:
gryffron wrote:Not to mention the fact that it is a "mañana" solution which doesn't really solve anything. Just puts off all the actual decisions for another couple of years.

Gryff

Exactly, come the end of 2020 we would be told that they have been unable to come to a trade agreement so we carry on for another year, then 2022 we have a general election, then more negotiations etc etc or they come back with a trade deal and Labour vote it down, just because they can.

Let's get real, once the EU know we will not leave without a deal, why would they offer us a good one.


Threatening to shoot yourself in the head is seldom a good negotiating strategy - at most it may get you a few soothing words whilst your opposite number calls the men in white coats.


Using a wildly inaccurate sensationalist analogy just discredits your reply to the point that your view is ignored

ursaminortaur
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Re: Meaningful Vote - Poll

#193459

Postby ursaminortaur » January 14th, 2019, 2:48 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Quint wrote:Exactly, come the end of 2020 we would be told that they have been unable to come to a trade agreement so we carry on for another year, then 2022 we have a general election, then more negotiations etc etc or they come back with a trade deal and Labour vote it down, just because they can.

Let's get real, once the EU know we will not leave without a deal, why would they offer us a good one.


Threatening to shoot yourself in the head is seldom a good negotiating strategy - at most it may get you a few soothing words whilst your opposite number calls the men in white coats.


Using a wildly inaccurate sensationalist analogy just discredits your reply to the point that your view is ignored


So as well as taking it on yourself to intepret the "will of the people" you are now taking it upon yourself to speak for everyone on this board ?


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