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Interserve open offer

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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TUK020
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Re: Interserve open offer

#199670

Postby TUK020 » February 7th, 2019, 6:31 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Maybe you'd like to compile a list of high yielding shares now which will collapse in the next two years - then we can see how predictable these things are without the benefit of hindsight.

Arb.


Not claiming this is infallible, but the best 'dragons be here' pointer I can find:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Carillion hit 15% on this. Interserve also figured, but I was not a holder and not taking notes

Arborbridge
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Re: Interserve open offer

#199697

Postby Arborbridge » February 7th, 2019, 8:01 pm

TUK020 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Maybe you'd like to compile a list of high yielding shares now which will collapse in the next two years - then we can see how predictable these things are without the benefit of hindsight.

Arb.


Not claiming this is infallible, but the best 'dragons be here' pointer I can find:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Carillion hit 15% on this. Interserve also figured, but I was not a holder and not taking notes


In my view, this is far from infallible. In fact, I wonder whether we should even bother - is it just more over analysing?
Greene King also hit - was it 13% or more? - before recovering, more than once and so have other companies. Most Hedgies are interested in making a quick buck so shorting can get quite high even for good companies which have a future. That 15% on CLLN was really a serious indication only became clear once the ballon had gone up by which time it was too late. Before that it was no more than suspicious and a potential recovery position.

I do admit, howebver, that 12-15% or more is a short position which does demand some further interrogation - but if things are really serious, I'll bet you and I would have no means of finding out.

Arb.

monabri
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Re: Interserve open offer

#203243

Postby monabri » February 22nd, 2019, 4:39 pm

Family Monabri will be opening the Asti Spumante tonight after a 60% increase in the sp today. We might have to chip in a bit though to afford a FULL bottle.
:(

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Re: Interserve open offer

#203331

Postby Bouleversee » February 22nd, 2019, 10:49 pm

Yeah, 60% of almost nothing is still next to nothing. We have Coltrane to thank for this, and the opportunity to cough up more dosh in a rights issue. Are you up for it, Mon? https://news.sky.com/story/interserve-l ... e-11644662

Sounds rather like Lonmin where they had a consolidation after the rights which wiped out any value on the original holding and then the sp fell even more and is still not back to what we paid for that.

What do you think about IRV's future prospects if they are given more dosh now?

monabri
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Re: Interserve open offer

#203337

Postby monabri » February 22nd, 2019, 11:40 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
What do you think about IRV's future prospects if they are given more dosh now?


Low margin business with a main customer who is wary and will probably be looking to parcel out new contracts to others to spread the risk? Not too bright a future. For current shareholders ...I'm not sure it will make a lot of difference whatever happens.

My views on the current BOD ( DW excepted)....not publishable..I can see why Coltrane wants rid of them ( they'll no doubt walk away with a big pay off to shut them up and to get them to facilitate the changes).

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Re: Interserve open offer

#203856

Postby funduffer » February 26th, 2019, 7:49 am

Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

Look at what has happened to it in the last few years:

Carillion - bust
Interserve - collapse
Capita - cancelled divi
Balfour Beatty - big cuts
Keir - big cuts
Galliford Try - divi cut
Serco - cuts
G4S - cuts

Are there any winners in this type of business?

Steer well clear (he says having held Carillion, and still holding Capita and Galliford Try!)

FD

monabri
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Re: Interserve open offer

#204286

Postby monabri » February 27th, 2019, 2:05 pm

I see IRV have an updated offer.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 83431.html

Good money after bad?

Arborbridge
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Re: Interserve open offer

#204701

Postby Arborbridge » March 1st, 2019, 7:31 am

funduffer wrote:Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

Look at what has happened to it in the last few years:

Carillion - bust
Interserve - collapse
Capita - cancelled divi
Balfour Beatty - big cuts
Keir - big cuts
Galliford Try - divi cut
Serco - cuts
G4S - cuts

Are there any winners in this type of business?

Steer well clear (he says having held Carillion, and still holding Capita and Galliford Try!)

FD


I came to the same conclusion and now have none of them. However, for those with some "nous" I'd say there was an opportunity for some true contrarians. I'm excluding HYPers as they are not "true" contrarians but only pseudo contrarian!

Nothing for us here as regards new investment, but those caught with might be selling out at the worst point now.

kempiejon
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Re: Interserve open offer

#204709

Postby kempiejon » March 1st, 2019, 8:19 am

funduffer wrote:Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

Look at what has happened to it in the last few years:

Carillion - bust
Interserve - collapse
Capita - cancelled divi
Balfour Beatty - big cuts
Keir - big cuts
Galliford Try - divi cut
Serco - cuts
G4S - cuts

Are there any winners in this type of business?

Steer well clear (he says having held Carillion, and still holding Capita and Galliford Try!)

FD

G4S cuts ? I hold and didn't know about that one. Looking on the bright side Balfour will give me more income this year than last.

88V8
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Re: Interserve open offer

#204745

Postby 88V8 » March 1st, 2019, 9:53 am

kempiejon wrote:
funduffer wrote:Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

G4S cuts ? I hold and didn't know about that one. Looking on the bright side Balfour will give me more income this year than last.


Balfour's Prefs have paid throughout their woes. :)

Adding to the list of sectoral non-success, did you see this quoted from The Telegraph....

The Spanish giant that owns UK government contractor Amey has been forced to slash the value of the business by almost 90% in the latest blow to the outsourcing sector. Ferrovial said the book value of Amey, whose 20,000 employees maintain train tracks, escort prisoners and house armed forces personnel, was now just €103m (£88m) after a €774m write-off. -

A toxic sector. As an Interserve/Carillion 'investor' I'd say that's a good description.

V8

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Re: Interserve open offer

#204821

Postby funduffer » March 1st, 2019, 1:56 pm

kempiejon wrote:
funduffer wrote:Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

Look at what has happened to it in the last few years:

Carillion - bust
Interserve - collapse
Capita - cancelled divi
Balfour Beatty - big cuts
Keir - big cuts
Galliford Try - divi cut
Serco - cuts
G4S - cuts

Are there any winners in this type of business?

Steer well clear (he says having held Carillion, and still holding Capita and Galliford Try!)

FD

G4S cuts ? I hold and didn't know about that one. Looking on the bright side Balfour will give me more income this year than last.


Apologies, I have got G4S wrong, no divi cuts in last 5 years or more. I think I was remembering the 2012 Olympics!

It seems they are the HYP winners in this sector!

FD

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Re: Interserve open offer

#204830

Postby EssDeeAitch » March 1st, 2019, 2:27 pm

funduffer wrote:Support/Construction is a toxic sector, in my view.

Look at what has happened to it in the last few years:

Carillion - bust
Interserve - collapse
Capita - cancelled divi
Balfour Beatty - big cuts
Keir - big cuts
Galliford Try - divi cut
Serco - cuts
G4S - cuts

Are there any winners in this type of business?

Steer well clear (he says having held Carillion, and still holding Capita and Galliford Try!)

FD


It is toxic in mine as well.

Just some anecdotal information (specifically the companies that engage in Facilities Management)

I worked in the supply chain to these companies and they were a significant portion of our business. Without question the worst set of customers in our portfolio. They would batter price downward at the expense of quality, demand confidential rebates and extend payment until the very last moment. My still working spy's tell me that they have gotten worse and that it is now common for them to be put on credit hold and so they are having to extend their supply chain to get the next mug supplier to provide goods and services.

I would not gamble a single pound on any one of them within this sector.

Arborbridge
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Re: Interserve open offer

#204835

Postby Arborbridge » March 1st, 2019, 2:52 pm

funduffer wrote:
kempiejon wrote:G4S cuts ? I hold and didn't know about that one. Looking on the bright side Balfour will give me more income this year than last.


Apologies, I have got G4S wrong, no divi cuts in last 5 years or more. I think I was remembering the 2012 Olympics!

It seems they are the HYP winners in this sector!

FD


I held them once - I think it was the young security woman in the smart black and red uniform that seduced me*. Sold by a stop loss which triggered when they were out of favour.

*PS I'm sure there was a more rational reason for buying, but it's her I remember; love at first sight. Cripes, that was eleven years ago.
Arb.

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Re: Interserve open offer

#204848

Postby kempiejon » March 1st, 2019, 3:26 pm

G4S have a long growing dividend history though the past years have lagged inflation, I can buy more for less than my average rice though. Ashtead Group is another winner, a decade plus of increasing dividends rarely looms into HYP range though, Diploma another goodie along with Bunzl.

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Re: Interserve open offer

#204859

Postby Bouleversee » March 1st, 2019, 4:10 pm

Morgan Sindall have done quite well for me over the years and the dividend increases every year, over 4% at the moment, which I am comfortable with. Pretty good results out a few days ago. Does anyone know anything bad about them? I wonder what their secret is which enables them to do so well in this generally toxic area. A dream compared with IRV. I must face up to reading all the bumf about the meetings re the latter's rights issue etc. and deciding how to vote. Is anyone taking up the rights? I am inclined to just sell my holdings and get it over with? A huge loss to add to that of CLLN and the multiple as yet unrealised ones which will probably never recover.

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Re: Interserve open offer

#204889

Postby monabri » March 1st, 2019, 6:20 pm

More money into IRV?

I suggest that people lie down and reconsider.

I will not be taking up the open offer (note, it's not a Rights Issue).

Wealth creation for the BOD whilst the can is kicked down the road and job maintenance for the 68,000 (yes, sixty eight thousand? ) employees.

Wafer thin margins - one problem and it ends up in the doo-doo.

NO!

(The last time I looked the market cap crashed to about £15m based on 10p per share .... and 68,000 employees ).



Shares outstanding: 149,719,938

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Re: Interserve open offer

#205255

Postby Bouleversee » March 3rd, 2019, 8:25 pm

I see none of the directors will be taking up their entitlements under the open offer so why should any other ordinary shareholders? I would have to cough up another £7,642 since I hold 2629 shares. Being something of a Doris, I don't understand the debt/equity situation anyway so won't be throwing any more money into that particular cesspool; loss at Friday's price: £11,125. The only question that remains is whether the share price is likely to be more or less than l7.76p in the future and whether one might as well bite the bullet and cut one's losses now, realising (at Friday's price) the princely sum of £467.92, less the costs of 2 brokers.

I can't see much point in trying to vote, even supposing I knew which way to vote since neither of the options will benefit me. IWeb haven't informed me about any of it and I really can't be bothered to chase.

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Re: Interserve open offer

#205993

Postby 88V8 » March 6th, 2019, 3:20 pm

Yes, as we approach CGT time, I have no shortage of losses. IFL (Int Ferro Metal) gone bust, the last hangover from the days when I was into mining shares, Cobham, Centrica, GLIF and others underwater, and of course Interserve. One can only carry losses forward now for four years.

Indeed, what will the IRV share price be. With a 95% loss and being asked to fork out another £18k, it seems that equity holders are being called upon to do an awful lot of the heavy lifting.
Mind you, this is the initial crap offer. A better one was outlined in The Times a few days ago. Think I'll vote against, who knows I might tip the balance.

Of course, we must remember that capital doesn't matter. If I carry on at this rate there won't be any to matter :(

V8

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Re: Interserve open offer

#206014

Postby Bouleversee » March 6th, 2019, 4:31 pm

88V8 wrote:Yes, as we approach CGT time, I have no shortage of losses. IFL (Int Ferro Metal) gone bust, the last hangover from the days when I was into mining shares, Cobham, Centrica, GLIF and others underwater, and of course Interserve. One can only carry losses forward now for four years.

Indeed, what will the IRV share price be. With a 95% loss and being asked to fork out another £18k, it seems that equity holders are being called upon to do an awful lot of the heavy lifting.
Mind you, this is the initial crap offer. A better one was outlined in The Times a few days ago. Think I'll vote against, who knows I might tip the balance.

Of course, we must remember that capital doesn't matter. If I carry on at this rate there won't be any to matter :(

V8


OMG! I had no idea one could only carry losses forward for 4 years now. I have a long list of losses dating from longer ago than that, since current year losses have to be used first and most of my realised losses are now in ISAs and gains in dealing accounts or certificated . These old losses were agreed with HMRC and I think I actually used a bit of the total last year when I had gains slightly in excess of the allowance and they didn't say I couldn't do it any longer which one would have expected them to do. I'd better realise all those remaining certificated and dealing account losses p.d.q. as I realised a large gain this year, and bought back some in an ISA, after which the s.p. fell a lot. Can't win. Are you 100% certain of this?
Needless to say, both IRV holdings are in ISAs.

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Re: Interserve open offer

#206016

Postby Dod101 » March 6th, 2019, 4:39 pm

Alaric wrote:
Arborbridge wrote: no HYPer ever believes that capital doesn't matter .


I rather had the impression that a share with a dividend yield of 10%, but a year on year price drop of 8% would be preferred to one with a dividend yield of 2% but a price growth of 4%.


Are you serious Alaric?

Dod


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