Dod101 wrote:Itsallaguess wrote:Dod101 wrote:
Trying to estimate forecast yield is to my mind just silly because you are then trying to forecast the dividend and then the share price some months ahead.
Instead of estimating one unknown you are now trying to estimate two. That seems to me to be a remove too far from any possibility of accuracy.
That's not correct Dod - the forecast yields being discussed on this thread are a calculation of future expected-dividends based against the share price at the current time.
OK thanks IAAG. Teach me to jump in without following the whole thread.
Anyway I do just as I said. Surely there have been too many changes to dividend forecasts (usually downwards) to make the exercise worthwhile?
No worries Dod - I was really only correcting in case anyone reading might have got the wrong impression mainly, as I was fairly sure that you'd just misinterpreted the detail being discussed.
As for changes to forecast-dividends, then of course these will go on all the time across the market, but I stopped following the minutiae of investment-news from my income-investments a long time ago now, and much prefer to take my guidance from the people paid to carry out that task, and as that data is often freely available and also available for data-harvesting, then that seems like a much better way to spend less time on my investments than in the past, when I used to think there was value being added by crawling over every RNS items released to the market....
Of course there will always be surprise events and announcements from companies, but I fail to see how looking back at historical dividends paid would allow me to avoid those issues any better than using forward-looking broker-guidance, so I'll stick with what I find is a useful data-point for my current and potential income-investments, as I think it's served me well over recent years.