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Yield Forecasts For HYP

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Itsallaguess
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#228666

Postby Itsallaguess » June 11th, 2019, 12:20 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
Trying to estimate forecast yield is to my mind just silly because you are then trying to forecast the dividend and then the share price some months ahead.

Instead of estimating one unknown you are now trying to estimate two. That seems to me to be a remove too far from any possibility of accuracy.


That's not correct Dod - the forecast yields being discussed on this thread are a calculation of future expected-dividends based against the share price at the current time.


OK thanks IAAG. Teach me to jump in without following the whole thread.

Anyway I do just as I said. Surely there have been too many changes to dividend forecasts (usually downwards) to make the exercise worthwhile?


No worries Dod - I was really only correcting in case anyone reading might have got the wrong impression mainly, as I was fairly sure that you'd just misinterpreted the detail being discussed.

As for changes to forecast-dividends, then of course these will go on all the time across the market, but I stopped following the minutiae of investment-news from my income-investments a long time ago now, and much prefer to take my guidance from the people paid to carry out that task, and as that data is often freely available and also available for data-harvesting, then that seems like a much better way to spend less time on my investments than in the past, when I used to think there was value being added by crawling over every RNS items released to the market....

Of course there will always be surprise events and announcements from companies, but I fail to see how looking back at historical dividends paid would allow me to avoid those issues any better than using forward-looking broker-guidance, so I'll stick with what I find is a useful data-point for my current and potential income-investments, as I think it's served me well over recent years.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Arborbridge
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#232545

Postby Arborbridge » June 28th, 2019, 1:38 pm

I've only just noticed this thread.
I like to get some idea of what my income might be next year, and I do not see any point in looking in the rear view mirror when driving forward! A forecast enables my to reset my drawdown for pension purposes for the coming year. A DIY approach to forecasting I would find tedious and pointless. I have no inclination to monitor what all of the companies say, nor have I any hope of understanding their trading prospects so I leave this to people far more qualified than I am, and look are their concensus. This is likely to be more accurate than my own amateur guess, and much uicker to determine.

Anyone who has bothered to check my HYP reports will see that I sometimes make a comment about how well the forecast income turns out in practice. I'd say that across the portfolio as a whole the forecast works out very well - certainly well enough to be a useful indicator for my annual budget.

That's not to say that for any particular share the forecast will be foolproof - far from it. There are always shocks and black (or dirty grey) swans floating around, but the important thing for me, is whether the HYP income forecast as a whole is somewhere near right. One thing is for sure: assuming that income will be the same as last year will certainly be incorrect and most unhelpful for my salary prospects!

Arb.

SDN123
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#233402

Postby SDN123 » July 2nd, 2019, 2:04 pm

The forecast yields seem to be working again now, although very far from perfect: the forecast cover isn't working (less important for me, but I certainly hope that they come back too).

Looking directly at the main sharecast page for my shares it looks like the:
- "Key Financials" box has a reasonable forecast yield but no forecast cover calculated;
- "Key Fundamentals" box is working okay; and
- "Forecast" box has miscalculated the yield by a factor of 100.

None of which is great but it does give me hope that they are trying to fix whatever went wrong.

SDN

Lootman
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#233413

Postby Lootman » July 2nd, 2019, 2:31 pm

Arborbridge wrote: I like to get some idea of what my income might be next year, and I do not see any point in looking in the rear view mirror when driving forward! A forecast enables my to reset my drawdown for pension purposes for the coming year.

the important thing for me, is whether the HYP income forecast as a whole is somewhere near right.

It seems to me that that need of yours is best met by having a forecast dividend for 2020, rather than a forecast yield.

After all it is the cash amount of next year's dividends that is important for your purpose. Whereas the forecast yield simply takes the forecast dividend and then factors in the forecast share price as well, which presumably is of less or no interest to you.

What am I missing? Why do you care what next year's yield is?

Arborbridge
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#235662

Postby Arborbridge » July 10th, 2019, 6:40 pm

Lootman wrote:
Arborbridge wrote: I like to get some idea of what my income might be next year, and I do not see any point in looking in the rear view mirror when driving forward! A forecast enables my to reset my drawdown for pension purposes for the coming year.

the important thing for me, is whether the HYP income forecast as a whole is somewhere near right.

It seems to me that that need of yours is best met by having a forecast dividend for 2020, rather than a forecast yield.

After all it is the cash amount of next year's dividends that is important for your purpose. Whereas the forecast yield simply takes the forecast dividend and then factors in the forecast share price as well, which presumably is of less or no interest to you.

What am I missing? Why do you care what next year's yield is?

I've just come across this, and I expect the point has already been answered, but here goes... When using the Hyptuss spreadsheet, the only tool we have is to use the yields at the current price, then convert this to dividends paid. Yes, it's circuitous, but it's the only way we can do it as an automatic process. It does result in forecast dividends being the end result, as one requires.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Yield Forecasts For HYP

#235695

Postby Itsallaguess » July 10th, 2019, 8:45 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Lootman wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:I like to get some idea of what my income might be next year, and I do not see any point in looking in the rear view mirror when driving forward! A forecast enables my to reset my drawdown for pension purposes for the coming year.

the important thing for me, is whether the HYP income forecast as a whole is somewhere near right.


It seems to me that that need of yours is best met by having a forecast dividend for 2020, rather than a forecast yield.

After all it is the cash amount of next year's dividends that is important for your purpose. Whereas the forecast yield simply takes the forecast dividend and then factors in the forecast share price as well, which presumably is of less or no interest to you.

What am I missing? Why do you care what next year's yield is?


I've just come across this, and I expect the point has already been answered, but here goes... When using the Hyptuss spreadsheet, the only tool we have is to use the yields at the current price, then convert this to dividends paid. Yes, it's circuitous, but it's the only way we can do it as an automatic process. It does result in forecast dividends being the end result, as one requires.


The error Lootman made was to think that there's any forecast in share-prices - there aren't any at all.......

The forecasts initially are forecasts of actual dividends to be paid by each portfolio component.

Those individual forecast dividends can then be factored against the 'current' share price at any given time to produce a forecast-yield at the 'current' (at any given time) share price.

Those individual portfolio component forecast yields can then be used in the HYPTUSS tool to calculate an expected forecast dividend based on current holdings.

In aggregate, those individual forecast dividends are then used to produce a total 'portfolio forecast dividend', which can then also be used to produce an overall 'portfolio forecast yield' for the complete set of holdings.

The above might sound complicated, but it really isn't when we work through the individual steps, starting at the individual data point of a forecast dividend for each portfolio holding....

I should add here that the latest release of the HYPTUSS tool now actually allows the user to switch between using forecast yields or current yields, if there's a natural aversion to use forecasts of any sort....

Me? I plan on waking up tomorrow, so if a number of brokers closer to the action than me can tell me what they think the weather is going to be like, then I'm all ears....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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