dealtn wrote:GoSeigen wrote:In #311332 in the Snug:Mike4 wrote:I'm surprised you cannot see the difference. Heart attacks and ovarian cancers kill people at a broadly steady pace. The number deaths from CV19 left unchecked in a population increases broadly exponentially, until the disease runs out of victims. Or do you not accept that as true?
No, that is not true. The growth of an infections disease approximates the logistic function. This is approximately exponential in the very early stages, but long before the victims have run out the spread slows. Most deaths occur after the exponential stage has ended.
Not saying you're wrong. I haven't researched it. But I suspect the 2 words "left unchecked" have some bearing on that. Presumably there has been an amount of work leading to the conclusion "the growth of an infections disease approximates the logistic function"? So was that work based on observations in the real world (or to some extent a laboratory), and if so were these on infections that were "left unchecked" (easier in a laboratory than the real world I would think), or on those where attempts were made, either through behavioural change, or medical intervention, to "check" it?
It could be you are not in disagreement with each other, just not realising the subtle, but important, difference in what you are claiming.
Yes, I think you may be right. I don't know what the outcome would be "unchecked"; I don't think anyone is suggesting that CV has been or should be allowed to spread unchecked; I would prefer if the restrictions were much less draconian and more targeted; something like the South Korea/Japan approach...
For more on the maths/modelling, John Hussman is a good commentator to follow for both CV itself and the investment consequences.
I find it highly ironic that the same people (my parents for example) who would find it perfectly reasonable to target "black" people for "random" police stops because that is more likely to reduce crime would consider it grossly unfair to target "older" people (themselves) with tighter lockdown rules to try to save their lives!!!