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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262943

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 8:52 am

Praise for Chinese made model 3:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/11 ... 96225?s=20

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#262956

Postby Howard » November 8th, 2019, 9:58 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Praise for Chinese made model 3:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/11 ... 96225?s=20

Regards,


Is this a production model? Have Tesla started producing cars for sale at the Chinese plant? I thought they were still waiting for a permit from the Chinese authorities to start production?

And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263008

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 1:28 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Do these carbon neutral figures include battery production?

The Bentley article does not, as far as I can tell, discuss anything other than their UK factory.

For the other claims such as the VW one about their latest models, does this also include the co2 emission from battery production, something that I believe VW contract out to suppliers?

Regards,


Glad you asked!

The figures aren't difficult to follow. In the case of Audi Brussels and Bentley the site has been certified carbon neutral, eg. parts in + 0g CO2 -> Car out.

The Crewe HQ pretty much is Bentley.

The Bentley Motors factory is a fully integrated site – all aspects of car production from Design, Engineering, Manufacture, Quality, and Sales & Marketing take place in Crewe


- https://www.bentleymedia.com/en/company ... nd-figures

A small number of continentals are assembled in Dresden, but the vast majority of Bentleys are born in Crewe.

id.3:

Everything following comes from the same source, full details at the bottom, each fig or quote hyperlinked. These are potted highlights, anybody with a genuine interest would probably find it worthwhile reading the entire document, it's not long.

Image

- *

VW have picked out the battery, as you have, for special attention because of the massive contribution it makes to production CO2 levels.

Image

- *

The battery cells for ID.3 are supplied by the Korean company LG Chem, which manufactures the cells in Europe and invested in a production facility in Poland. A long time ago, Volkswagen agreed with LG Chem that only certified green electricity would be used to manufacture the battery cells. CO2 emissions from this sector are thus reduced to almost zero.


- *

Image


- *

You'll also have noted that Northvolt, who one has to assume are intended to supply a decent wack of VW's batteries in the future since they own 20% of the company and are building a joint VW/Northvolt project in Salzgitter, state upfront that their aim is to create the greenest batteries, and have started out building a plant in northern Sweden which is located both close to material sources and a massive hydro dam.

* - https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/st ... utral.html

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263009

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 1:37 pm

Howard wrote:And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.


Ten Cent only own 5% of Tesla...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263018

Postby odysseus2000 » November 8th, 2019, 2:33 pm

If the VW figures are correct I applaud their success and would like to see all human activity powered by renewable energy. This now looks relatively easy to do and would both create jobs, save money and be testament to what sensible folk can achieve when the time is right.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263054

Postby Howard » November 8th, 2019, 5:15 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:And, cynical mode on - is the tester employed by a big investor in Tesla? - cynical mode off.


Ten Cent only own 5% of Tesla...


Surprise suprise ;)

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263087

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 7:59 pm

Volkswagen starts pre-production in first plant purely focused on e-mobility in China

Pre-production in plant from SAIC VOLKSWAGEN in Anting, Shanghai, begins only one year after ground-breaking

...First vehicle is an electric-only Volkswagen ID. model for the Chinese market

...Pre-production begins just a few days after the first global ID. manufacturing started in Zwickau, Germany. Full series production in the new Anting factory is planned to commence in October 2020, with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. The MEB production plays a key role in Volkswagen Group China’s e-mobility strategy, as it strives to transform into a provider of sustainable mobility. The Anting plant is scheduled to start ID. model production at the same time with a plant by FAW-Volkswagen in Foshan, resulting in a combined capacity of 600,000 units per year.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... china-5548

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263118

Postby dspp » November 8th, 2019, 9:43 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Volkswagen starts pre-production in first plant purely focused on e-mobility in China

Pre-production in plant from SAIC VOLKSWAGEN in Anting, Shanghai, begins only one year after ground-breaking

...First vehicle is an electric-only Volkswagen ID. model for the Chinese market

...Pre-production begins just a few days after the first global ID. manufacturing started in Zwickau, Germany. Full series production in the new Anting factory is planned to commence in October 2020, with an annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. The MEB production plays a key role in Volkswagen Group China’s e-mobility strategy, as it strives to transform into a provider of sustainable mobility. The Anting plant is scheduled to start ID. model production at the same time with a plant by FAW-Volkswagen in Foshan, resulting in a combined capacity of 600,000 units per year.


- https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/ ... china-5548


At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263124

Postby BobbyD » November 8th, 2019, 10:30 pm

dspp wrote:At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp


Make it, rebadger, kill?

Life is certainly going to get hard, although depending on sector and market maybe not impossible. It isn't unforeseeable, and I'm not saying it's likely, that we might end up with Japan running on Hydrogen, a significant number of the United States trying to squeeze electric in a second Trump term fuelled by Big Oil once it becomes clear a return to coal powered cars isn't feasible, and Europe moving to Electric.

Some smaller companies might have customers quite happy to have their emissions fines lumped on to the sticker price, although with electric having a sportier whizz that's probably quite limited, as engine noise is only going to compensate for getting lapped so many times, so big trucks maybe?

Tradeable credits not only offer an incentive to those who overachieve their emissions targets but a way out for anybody who can manufacture petrol cars efficiently enough to absorb the extra cost.

...and you can always ring up VW and order 100,000 units of MEB in 24 months to tide you over.

That leaves Africa and Asia. Given the Chinese BEV push I'd say Asia is spoken for, and Africa is perfect for BEV, but that doesn't actually mean it's going to get there any time soon.

I have no doubt blood gonna spill, but equally you might find some manufacturers simply changing their profile or sub-contracting a part of their range, eg. Ford buying 600,000 units of MEB for European small cars, whilst electrifying other parts of the business themselves, whilst others desperately scramble around for a partner to give them more scale and share the costs.

It's certainly going to be interesting, although the only manufacturer whose future I have all that much certainty about is VW, and that only lasts as long as electric continues to win political backing, which looking around the world isn't a given!

So whose on your drop list?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263191

Postby redsturgeon » November 9th, 2019, 11:37 am

While the USA has idiots like these who knows what will happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmO4NwuIfrs

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263196

Postby andyalan10 » November 9th, 2019, 11:58 am

BobbyD wrote:
That leaves Africa and Asia. Given the Chinese BEV push I'd say Asia is spoken for, and Africa is perfect for BEV, but that doesn't actually mean it's going to get there any time soon.



Given China electric car sales currently down 34% year on year on subsidy cuts, and the non-existent progress in India and Indonesia, the second and third most populous countries in Asia I don't think Asia is "spoken for".

BobbyD wrote:
I have no doubt blood gonna spill, but equally you might find some manufacturers simply changing their profile or sub-contracting a part of their range, eg. Ford buying 600,000 units of MEB for European small cars, whilst electrifying other parts of the business themselves, whilst others desperately scramble around for a partner to give them more scale and share the costs.

It's certainly going to be interesting, although the only manufacturer whose future I have all that much certainty about is VW, and that only lasts as long as electric continues to win political backing, which looking around the world isn't a given!

So whose on your drop list?


I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.

I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?

andyalan10

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263199

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 12:14 pm



I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.

I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?

andyalan10


Volvo last time I looked at their strategy was going for BEV only & dropping all ice.

As things now are there seems no practical alternative to lithium ion batteries. Something may come but to get a better experience in terms of performance & reliability of power trains lithium ion is currently the only option. Ditto for emission while driving.

The argument re simpler but cost a lot to develop is that the overheads of going from ice to BEV are substantial, but once done the cost per unit falls. It is imho a very similar situation to the transition from piston air craft motors to jet engines, huge overheads to get jets practical, then much better performance & much lower on going making costs.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263200

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 12:16 pm

Also forgot to to mention that some of the lack of Chinese BEV sales is the effect of US tariffs, as these come off I expect BEV sales to rocket.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263208

Postby andyalan10 » November 9th, 2019, 1:04 pm

This article says:-

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volvo/108 ... ctric-cars

Volvo "expects" BEVs to be 50% of output by 2025. And "“The higher the percentage of all electric [sales] the faster we will shut down the others. If only 5 per cent are buying cars with combustion it probably doesn’t pay to keep that - so let’s see what the customers prefer long term.”

So on their current prediction it'll be a long time after 2025 that they will stop producing new ICE cars. But predicting things is difficult, hence my welcoming the fact that different manufacturers are taking different approaches.

andyalan10

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263232

Postby dspp » November 9th, 2019, 2:44 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:At this point any auto company that doesn't have an EV supply chain, end-to-end, ready to go into production is about to become history.

As interesting as whether TSLA will make it, is which others will or will not.

regards, dspp




So whose on your drop list?


I think JLR, FCA, BMW, PSA, and a whole slew of the smaller regional players are looking in danger. Maybe also GM, Mazda, Kia, Mitsubishi. Perhaps also BMW and Mercedes.

I think quite a lot of the truck & bus manufacturers will likewise be at risk.

I just checked the TSLA shareprice. You can see I am a LTBH type of person because I haven't looked for quite a while. Wow, up at $337 after trading in the $220-$240 range for quite a while. My calcs were the $220-$240 was fair value on PEG basis at 33% yoy growth, and excluding all the non-auto valuation items. Hmmmmmmm.........

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263271

Postby BobbyD » November 9th, 2019, 5:46 pm

andyalan10 wrote:Given China electric car sales currently down 34% year on year on subsidy cuts, and the non-existent progress in India and Indonesia, the second and third most populous countries in Asia I don't think Asia is "spoken for".


China is rationalising their BEV production, given their credits system you are still either going to have to sell BEV's or buy credits from somebody who does if you want to sell petrol cars in China. India might be moving more slowly, but then India doesn't have the level of government control that China does or the ability to direct the world's largest automotive industry to fulfill its goals, and China has a far more conspicuous local air pollution problem to address. With the greatest of respect to Indonesia Asia is the one place on the planet where a country of quarter a billion people isn't going to tip the scales.

andyalan10 wrote:I see a significant role for large heavy Lithium Ion Batteries in large heavy cars, but I am also sure they are not the only technological answer and I'm unsure that they are the best answer for anything. I think one of the best developments is recent times is that major manufacturers have decided to bet on different strategies, with VW saying we need a dedicated battery only platform and Volvo and PSA saying the customer wants a car we should be able to provide that car with petrol/diesel/hybrid power trains depending on their needs and the regulatory framework.


The other side of that coin is that VW can afford to produce petrol cars which are designed to the limits and advantages of petrol cars, and electric cars which are designed to the limits and advantages of electric cars, whilst PSA and Volvo are forced to take in to account the restrictions of an electric architecture when designing a petrol car and the restrictions of a petrol architecture whilst designing an electric car.

With VW you buy a Golf if you want petrol and an id.3 if you want electric, both markets are serviced by dedicated platforms, something which is possible because of the sheer number of cars that VW sells. VW are providing the same choice of powertrains as Volvo and PSA, but packaged in a box which is designed specifically for that powertrain. The customer doesn't lose any choice, but gains a more refined product in every case.

You can make perfectly decent cars using a split architecture, for example the e-golf, or by building electric on fossil fuel platforms, for example the e-tron, but can you really push the design limits or achieve the same manufacturing efficiency as a dedicated factory of either persuasion pumping out dedicated vehicles which identify unambiguously as electric or fossil fuel?

The difference is that VW can address the switchover at a factory level taking full advantage of both electric and fossil, whilst manufacturers with lower outputs have to address it at a line, or even a car level. The i-pace for example is manufactured on the same line as the e-pace by Magna Steyr in Austria. I think this is how you manage the electric transition if you can't simply turn off a factory here and one over there for conversion as and when it becomes necessary, or build a new plant here knowing that in 24 months you'll be happily shipping 300,000 units a year from it to eager customers. I don't think it's how you go about it if you have a choice, I think it is what you do if you don't have the scale to switch an entire factory or an entire market segment.

andyalan10 wrote:I also find it hard to reconcile the twin arguments about BEVs. They are far simpler in terms of number of components and more easy to package, and they require much greater economies of scale and vast amounts of money to develop. Both of those things can't be true can they?


I've seen the argument that BEV's are simpler disputed, based on the complexity of the battery pack which is often treated as a a single component but contains many parts and much fine work connecting them. Tesla packs to take an extreme example contain literally thousands of cells. I'm quite happy with the idea that even if BEV's are simpler than fossil fuel vehicles the difference isn't as big as those whose mental schematic of a BEV consists of an AA battery wired to a lego motor, controlled by a single spring loaded pedal believe.

But even if it were simple to construct a BEV, you can only do that once you've designed the platform, developed the supply chains, and managed to corner a shipment of very in demand batteries, all of which are easier the bigger you are, and easier to recoup the more units you sell.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263283

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 7:03 pm

Volvo Geely are attempting to split off a new unit focused on combustion power trains as a new business.

Volvo intend to drop Diesel completely.

No clear time scale given but I doubt it will be long given the mood music coming from Gothenburg:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volv ... SKBN1WM0LY

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263284

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 7:05 pm

Also meant to say that at current rates of production, Tesla will out sell Volvo in number of vehicles sold.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263292

Postby Howard » November 9th, 2019, 7:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Also meant to say that at current rates of production, Tesla will out sell Volvo in number of vehicles sold.

Regards


Really?

I think you are being a little optimistic. Are you on the same stuff as Elon? ;)

Volvo sold over 640,000 cars in 2018 and they have sold more so far in 2019.

We'll wait to see how many cars Tesla sells in 2019. If they meet their much reduced forecast, it will be around 360,000, but that isn't guaranteed as their sales in the USA were down a bit in Q3 and after their low European sales figures for October they really need a good Nov and Dec.

Ody, when is their Chinese plant going to start producing cars for sale? That may make a modest difference to their 2019 sales?

regards

Howard

See: Volvo Cars reported record first half year sales in 2019 of 340,826 cars, up 7.3 per cent compared with the same period last year. The company sold 317,639 cars in the first six months of 2018.

https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/ ... es-in-2019

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Re: Musk endeavours

#263314

Postby odysseus2000 » November 9th, 2019, 11:52 pm

Tesla is currently producing about 97,000 cars per 1/4, so about 388,000 per year:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/10/te ... t-quarter/

The Chinese factory is said to be able to do more, but of course we don't know, yet, but if it was at the same rate as e US, it would be around 776,000 per year.

Estimates are they will be able to produce 1 million cars per year, but again we don't know till China starts making.

Cumulative Tesla car production is over 800,000:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

Tesla cumulative production will hit over a million just on US factory by 1st quarter of 2020, or close to end of 2019 if China starts up soon.

Regards,


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