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Lonmin and Platinum

GoSeigen
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#141376

Postby GoSeigen » May 25th, 2018, 9:47 pm

CommissarJones wrote:Liberum speculated last week that Sibanye's takeover of Lonmin might fall through because of the effect on Lonmin's finances of low platinum prices and the stronger rand. But in yesterday's interim results, Lonmin said it still expects the deal to complete in the second half of 2018. And now the UK competition regulator has decided to stick its oar into the situation as well.

The price action of the two stocks is not pretty. Sibanye has dropped almost 20% in May, and Lonmin is down about 15%.


Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens? I have no idea TBH, waiting has been a good policy so far, but can't really believe there is no value in these assets.

Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...


GS

CommissarJones
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#141382

Postby CommissarJones » May 25th, 2018, 11:36 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens?

An excellent question. Historically, moments of great pessimism have often proved to be good times to invest. However, I am having trouble persuading myself that this particular instance is one of those occasions.

GoSeigen wrote:Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...

They both have. Both stocks are down about 30% this month alone, let alone all of the declines that took place before May. There is some pretty serious value destruction going on here. And let us not forget that Xstrata was willing to pay £33 a share for Lonmin back in 2008, compared with the most recent close of 41.52p ...

Bouleversee
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#143524

Postby Bouleversee » June 4th, 2018, 12:00 pm

CommissarJones wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens?

An excellent question. Historically, moments of great pessimism have often proved to be good times to invest. However, I am having trouble persuading myself that this particular instance is one of those occasions.

GoSeigen wrote:Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...

They both have. Both stocks are down about 30% this month alone, let alone all of the declines that took place before May. There is some pretty serious value destruction going on here. And let us not forget that Xstrata was willing to pay £33 a share for Lonmin back in 2008, compared with the most recent close of 41.52p ...


I wish you hadn't reminded me of that CJ. Having lost my entire original investment and coughed up for the rights issue, I felt a very painful twisting of the knife. I certainly won't be coughing up any more and have mentally written this one off.


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