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Lonmin and Platinum

GoSeigen
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#141376

Postby GoSeigen » May 25th, 2018, 9:47 pm

CommissarJones wrote:Liberum speculated last week that Sibanye's takeover of Lonmin might fall through because of the effect on Lonmin's finances of low platinum prices and the stronger rand. But in yesterday's interim results, Lonmin said it still expects the deal to complete in the second half of 2018. And now the UK competition regulator has decided to stick its oar into the situation as well.

The price action of the two stocks is not pretty. Sibanye has dropped almost 20% in May, and Lonmin is down about 15%.


Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens? I have no idea TBH, waiting has been a good policy so far, but can't really believe there is no value in these assets.

Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...


GS

CommissarJones
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#141382

Postby CommissarJones » May 25th, 2018, 11:36 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens?

An excellent question. Historically, moments of great pessimism have often proved to be good times to invest. However, I am having trouble persuading myself that this particular instance is one of those occasions.

GoSeigen wrote:Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...

They both have. Both stocks are down about 30% this month alone, let alone all of the declines that took place before May. There is some pretty serious value destruction going on here. And let us not forget that Xstrata was willing to pay £33 a share for Lonmin back in 2008, compared with the most recent close of 41.52p ...

Bouleversee
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#143524

Postby Bouleversee » June 4th, 2018, 12:00 pm

CommissarJones wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Is this the time to grow big cahones or to patiently wait and see what happens?

An excellent question. Historically, moments of great pessimism have often proved to be good times to invest. However, I am having trouble persuading myself that this particular instance is one of those occasions.

GoSeigen wrote:Lonmin has p'ed away a LOT of value though to be fair...

They both have. Both stocks are down about 30% this month alone, let alone all of the declines that took place before May. There is some pretty serious value destruction going on here. And let us not forget that Xstrata was willing to pay £33 a share for Lonmin back in 2008, compared with the most recent close of 41.52p ...


I wish you hadn't reminded me of that CJ. Having lost my entire original investment and coughed up for the rights issue, I felt a very painful twisting of the knife. I certainly won't be coughing up any more and have mentally written this one off.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#224254

Postby Bouleversee » May 24th, 2019, 4:29 pm

So Lonmin is finally going to be taken over by Sibanye Stillwater on a 1 for 1 basis, subject to General Meeting and Court Approval on 28 May and 7 June respectively. It is expected that new shares will be credited to shareholders' accounts on or after 13 June but Lonmin will be delisted from the LSE and the last day of dealing is expected to be 7 June. The new Sibanye shares will only be admitted to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and most brokers here, including those of myself and my children, won't facilitate that. However, as my investment of £3586 (made long ago) is now worth only £100.89 at today's price, it is not worth looking for one who does; needless to say the price has fallen further since this became known. I am probably the only idiot watching these boards who still holds and I shall sell on Monday.

Bouleversee
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#224255

Postby Bouleversee » May 24th, 2019, 4:35 pm

Or should I wait till it is approved at the General Meeting on May 28 in case it gets turned down? I've never heard of that happening but I voted against via my broker just to make me feel better. I suppose some people will be picking up some cheap shares.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#224276

Postby Bouleversee » May 24th, 2019, 6:27 pm

Just woken up to the fact that Mon. is a Bank Holiday so won't be able to sell then anyway!

CommissarJones
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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#224310

Postby CommissarJones » May 24th, 2019, 11:04 pm

Bouleversee wrote:So Lonmin is finally going to be taken over by Sibanye Stillwater on a 1 for 1 basis, subject to General Meeting and Court Approval on 28 May and 7 June respectively.

Well, Standard Bank is advising shareholders to reject the offer, so who knows how it might turn out? Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

In any case, the general backdrop for platinum seems as dreary as ever - the price fell to the lowest level since 2003 in August 2018, and futures have dropped almost 10% this month, wiping out most of the year-to-date gain.

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#224496

Postby Bouleversee » May 26th, 2019, 12:10 pm

I didn't need anyone else to tell me that the offer undervalued Lonmin shares. However, if l5 of the 20 top Lonmin shareholders also hold S-S shares, I somehow don't think my voting the few shares I have left after the cancellation of my original holding against the deal, as I did, will make much difference. I'll wait for the result on Tues. which I feel sure will be in favour and then I'll sell and collect my peanuts. Is the fall in platinum prices due to the rise of electric cars, or what?

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Re: Lonmin and Platinum

#225039

Postby Bouleversee » May 28th, 2019, 5:47 pm

The merger was approved so that's that and another £3600 down the drain. Keep eating the Greggs vegan sausage rolls, everyone.


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